Investors in First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. (NASDAQ:FIBK) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.5% to close at US$27.00 following the release of its first-quarter results. Revenues were US$242m, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$0.57 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 15%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for First Interstate BancSystem

Taking into account the latest results, First Interstate BancSystem's six analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$997.1m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to fall 11% to US$2.21 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$996.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.16 in 2024. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$28.71, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values First Interstate BancSystem at US$32.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$24.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that First Interstate BancSystem is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that First Interstate BancSystem's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 14% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than First Interstate BancSystem.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards First Interstate BancSystem following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that First Interstate BancSystem's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$28.71, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for First Interstate BancSystem going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see whether First Interstate BancSystem is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.