Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NASDAQ:STLD) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 6.5% to US$130 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Steel Dynamics reported US$4.7b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.67 beat expectations, being 6.5% higher than what the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Steel Dynamics

Taking into account the latest results, the twelve analysts covering Steel Dynamics provided consensus estimates of US$18.2b revenue in 2024, which would reflect a perceptible 2.2% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plummet 27% to US$11.15 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$18.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$11.01 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$131, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Steel Dynamics analyst has a price target of US$165 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$103. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 2.9% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 17% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.8% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Steel Dynamics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$131, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Steel Dynamics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Steel Dynamics you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.