There's been a notable change in appetite for AxoGen, Inc. (NASDAQ:AXGN) shares in the week since its full-year report, with the stock down 16% to US$9.02. It was a respectable set of results; while revenues of US$159m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory losses were 10% smaller than expected, with AxoGen losing US$0.51 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for AxoGen

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from AxoGen's five analysts is for revenues of US$179.3m in 2024. This reflects a solid 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to be contained, narrowing 14% from last year to US$0.43. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$179.2m and US$0.31 per share in losses. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a sizeable expansion in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

Despite expectations of heavier losses next year,the analysts have lifted their price target 10% to US$13.80, perhaps implying these losses are not expected to be recurring over the long term. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on AxoGen, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$17.00 and the most bearish at US$11.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await AxoGen shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 13% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 11% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 7.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that AxoGen is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at AxoGen. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple AxoGen analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - AxoGen has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.