It's been a good week for Krispy Kreme, Inc. (NASDAQ:DNUT) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 2.8% to US$13.01. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$443m, statutory losses exploded to US$0.05 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Krispy Kreme

After the latest results, the ten analysts covering Krispy Kreme are now predicting revenues of US$1.79b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a credible 4.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 86% to US$0.039. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.79b and losses of US$0.024 per share in 2024. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Krispy Kreme even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a regrettable increase in per-share losses.

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$16.67, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Krispy Kreme at US$22.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$13.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Krispy Kreme's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 11% p.a. growth over the last three years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Krispy Kreme is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Krispy Kreme's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Krispy Kreme going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Krispy Kreme , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.