Investors in HF Sinclair Corporation (NYSE:DINO) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.1% to close at US$56.67 following the release of its quarterly results. Revenues of US$7.0b fell slightly short of expectations, but earnings were a definite bright spot, with statutory per-share profits of US$1.57 an impressive 112% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for HF Sinclair

Following last week's earnings report, HF Sinclair's ten analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$31.6b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to fall 12% to US$7.08 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$31.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.40 in 2024. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a nice gain to earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$66.38, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic HF Sinclair analyst has a price target of US$77.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$54.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that HF Sinclair's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 0.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 21% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 2.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than HF Sinclair.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards HF Sinclair following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple HF Sinclair analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 4 warning signs for HF Sinclair (1 can't be ignored!) that we have uncovered.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.