There's been a notable change in appetite for Appian Corporation (NASDAQ:APPN) shares in the week since its quarterly report, with the stock down 15% to US$31.98. Revenues were in line with expectations, at US$150m, while statutory losses ballooned to US$0.45 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Appian

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Appian's nine analysts is for revenues of US$615.9m in 2024. This would reflect a solid 10.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to narrow 5.9% to US$1.40 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$615.8m and US$1.18 per share in losses. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a noticeable increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

With the increase in forecast losses for next year, it's perhaps no surprise to see that the average price target dipped 12% to US$39.44, with the analysts signalling that growing losses would be a definite concern. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Appian, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$48.00 and the most bearish at US$32.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Appian's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 14% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 18% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 419 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Appian's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Appian. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Appian's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Appian going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Appian .

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.