Shareholders might have noticed that Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (NYSE:HCC) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.6% to US$66.23 in the past week. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of US$504m coming in 5.6% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of US$2.62, in line with analyst appraisals. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Warrior Met Coal

Following last week's earnings report, Warrior Met Coal's five analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$1.69b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to descend 10% to US$7.44 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.70b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.80 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$73.83, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Warrior Met Coal analyst has a price target of US$91.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$64.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Warrior Met Coal's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Warrior Met Coal's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 1.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.9% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Warrior Met Coal is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$73.83, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Warrior Met Coal going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Warrior Met Coal that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.