Investors in Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:LIND) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.9% to close at US$7.54 following the release of its quarterly results. The results don't look great, especially considering that statutory losses grew 100% toUS$0.10 per share. Revenues of US$154m did beat expectations by 2.6%, but it looks like a bit of a cold comfort. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Lindblad Expeditions Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Lindblad Expeditions Holdings' four analysts is for revenues of US$621.4m in 2024. This would reflect a reasonable 7.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 65% to US$0.36. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$620.2m and losses of US$0.37 per share in 2024. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in analyst sentiment with the latest consensus release, given the upgrade to loss per share forecasts for this year.

Even with the lower forecast losses, the analysts lowered their valuations, with the average price target falling 9.1% to US$12.50. It looks likethe analysts have become less optimistic about the overall business. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Lindblad Expeditions Holdings analyst has a price target of US$16.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$9.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Lindblad Expeditions Holdings shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Lindblad Expeditions Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 9.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 20% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 150 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Lindblad Expeditions Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Lindblad Expeditions Holdings' future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Lindblad Expeditions Holdings analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Lindblad Expeditions Holdings (of which 1 is significant!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.