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Consider Quantumscape Stock A Buy Once There’s A Correction

Consider Quantumscape Stock A Buy Once There’s A Correction

一旦出現修正,考慮購買Quantumscape股票
InvestorPlace ·  2021/08/31 12:34

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As the adage goes, “time in the market” may matter more than “timing the market.” But when it comes to buying Quantumscape (NYSE:QS) stock as a long-term bet on the future of electric vehicle (EV) batteries? You may want to wait for a market downturn before making your move.

正如諺語所説,“入市時間”可能比“把握市場時機”更重要。但當談到買東西的時候Quantumscape(紐約證券交易所股票代碼:QS)股票是對電動汽車(EV)電池未來的長期押注?你可能想等市場低迷後再採取行動。

Why? EV plays like this one have already fallen big from their high water marks. Yet don’t assume the dust has settled completely just yet. Issues like possible changes in U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy, or the continued spread of Covid-19’s Delta variant, could cause market turbulence later this year. If markets get stormy? Speculative growth names across the board will not be spared.

為什麼?像這樣的電動車遊戲已經從他們的高水平線上大幅下降了。不過,不要以為塵埃落定。美國聯邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve)貨幣政策可能發生的變化,或者新冠肺炎的Delta變體繼續蔓延等問題,可能會在今年晚些時候引發市場動盪。如果市場風雨飄搖呢?所有投機性的增長公司也不能倖免。

The upshot? If you haven’t bought it already, you may be able to enter a long-term position at a more favorable entry point.

結果呢?如果你還沒有買入,或許可以在更有利的入場點進入長期倉位。

Whether or not a market meltdown is around the corner, it’s going to be years until this early stage EV battery company starts to see its business take off. Very likely to sink lower before it heads higher, there’s little reason to dive in today.

無論市場是否即將崩潰,這家處於早期階段的電動汽車電池公司還需要數年時間才能開始實現業務騰飛。很有可能在它走高之前先跌下去,今天幾乎沒有理由跳水。

The Rise and Fall of QS Stock

QS股票的漲跌

It’s an understatement to say the buzz around this stock was off-the-charts late last year. Two factors caused this. First, last November, this former SPAC (special purpose acquisition company) closed on its merger deal. Previously known as Kensington Capital Acquisition, it acquired Quantumscape and took on its name on Nov 27.

可以輕描淡寫地説,去年年底圍繞這隻股票的熱議是史無前例的。造成這種情況的原因有兩個。首先,去年11月,這家前SPAC(特殊目的收購公司)完成了合併交易。前身為肯辛頓資本收購(Kensington Capital Acquisition),它於11月27日收購了Quantumscape並以其名稱命名。

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Given the big success investors had buying SPACs post deSPACing in 2020, it’s no surprise they rushed into QS stock. Second, hype for EV and EV-related stocks received extra runway, thanks to the perception that the election of Joe Biden as U.S. President would speed up America’s move to EVs.

考慮到投資者在2020年退市後買入SPAC取得的巨大成功,他們蜂擁買入QS股票也就不足為奇了。其次,對電動汽車和電動汽車相關股票的炒作獲得了額外的跑道,這要歸功於人們認為喬·拜登(Joe Biden)當選美國總統將加快美國轉向電動汽車的步伐。

As a result, the stock zoomed to prices more than 13x above its initial SPAC offering price of $10 per share. Unfortunately, investors who bought in at or near that top ended up with a serious case of holding the bag. Since topping out at $132.73 per share, the stock has taken a nearly 84% dive.

其結果是,該股股價飆升至每股10美元的SPAC發行價的13倍以上。不幸的是,在這一高點或接近這一高點買入的投資者最終將面臨嚴重的責任。自達到每股132.73美元的高點以來,該股已暴跌近84%。

Between the spring crash in SPAC stocks, plus the realization that, even with Biden administration’s efforts, it would still take years for EVs to gain critical mass, speculators who saw this and similar stocks as “buys at any price” headed for the exits. But just because it’s appearing to find a floor at between $20 and $25 per share, don’t assume it’s bottomed-out just yet. A market-wide correction could mean another major move lower.

在春季SPAC股票暴跌,再加上人們意識到,即使拜登政府做出了努力,電動汽車仍需要數年時間才能達到臨界質量,那些認為這一點和類似股票都是“不惜一切代價買入”的投機者紛紛撤離。但是,不要僅僅因為它似乎在每股20美元到25美元之間找到了底部,就認為它已經觸底。全市場的回調可能意味着另一次重大走低。

Why Quantumscape Could See Another Double-Digit Decline

為什麼Quantumscape可能再次出現兩位數的下降

Encouraging updates from its CEO (Jagdeep Singh) notwithstanding, it’s still a long road ahead for this company. The solid state batteries, or SSBs, it’s developing could become standard one day in EVs, given their price, range, and safety advantages over the lithium ion battery technology currently used. The problem? It may have, via its partnership with Volkswagen (OTCMKTS:VWAGY), a big customer already lined up. But it won’t be until at least 2024 that commercialization kicks off for Quantumscape.

儘管首席執行官賈格迪普·辛格(JagDeep Singh)發佈了令人鼓舞的最新消息,但對這家公司來説,還有很長的路要走。考慮到與目前使用的鋰離子電池技術相比,固態電池的價格、續航里程和安全優勢,該公司正在開發的固態電池,或稱SSB,有朝一日可能成為電動汽車的標準電池。問題出在哪裏?它可能已經通過與其合作伙伴關係大眾(OTCMKTS:VWAGY),一個大客户已經在排隊了。但至少要到2024年,Quantumscape才會開始商業化。

How does this play into future price movements for QS stock? Even at its deflated prices today, shares are still being valued on hope and hype, as the Wall Street Journal recently put it. Waning enthusiasm for EV and SPAC stocks may have sent it down big from its all-time high. Yet the stock market’s resiliency, despite worries about Fed tapering, inflation, and the Delta variant, have likely helped to prop it up to some extent.

這對QS股票未來的價格走勢有何影響?即使在今天股價下跌的情況下,股票的估值仍然是基於希望和炒作,因為《華爾街日報》最近才説的。對電動汽車和SPAC股票的熱情減弱,可能是導致其從歷史高位大幅下跌的原因。然而,股市的彈性,儘管擔心美聯儲縮減量化寬鬆、通脹和三角洲變量,可能在一定程度上幫助支撐了股市。

However, this could soon change. The Fed could speed up its plans to raise interest rates, and end quantitative easing. Even if the Fed sticks to its timeline, other factors could cause a downturn. For example, slowing earnings growth. Also, if the ramp-up in the vaccination push fails to bring the Delta outbreak under control? This too could cause markets to head lower.

然而,這種情況可能很快就會改變。美聯儲可以加快其加息計劃,並結束量化寬鬆。即使美聯儲堅持其時間表,其他因素也可能導致經濟低迷。例如,盈利增長放緩。另外,如果加大疫苗接種力度不能控制三角洲疫情?這也可能導致市場走低。

If the bull market comes to an end later in 2021? Stocks priced on hype and hope like this one could see declines outsized compared to that of the overall market. Depending on the severity of the next downturn, it wouldn’t be surprising if QS stock briefly falls below its SPAC offering price of $10 per share.

如果牛市在2021年晚些時候結束?在炒作和希望的基礎上定價的股票,與整體市場相比,可能會出現過大的跌幅。根據下一輪經濟低迷的嚴重程度,如果QS股價短暫跌破SPAC每股10美元的發行價,也就不足為奇了。

If The Payoff is Years Away, Why Buy Now?

如果幾年後才能拿到回報,為什麼現在就買呢?

Still in the pre-revenue stage, the true “payoff” moment for Quantumscape remains years away. In the meantime, assuming a correction happens in the coming months or within the next year, shares may be in for another major decline.

Quantumscape仍處於營收前階段,真正的“回報”時刻還需要數年時間。與此同時,假設未來幾個月或明年出現回調,股價可能會再次大幅下跌。

With its high chances of it making a big move lower before it bounces back, why buy QS stock now? Even if you are bullish on its SSB technology, your best move may be to wait for lower prices.

鑑於它在反彈前大幅走低的可能性很高,為什麼現在買入QS股票?即使你看好它的SSB技術,你最好的選擇可能是等待更低的價格。

On the date of publication, Thomas Niel did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

在出版之日,托馬斯·尼爾沒有(直接或間接)持有本文所述證券的任何頭寸。本文中表達的觀點是作者的觀點,受InvestorPlace.com發佈指南的約束。

Thomas Niel, contributor for InvestorPlace.com, has been writing single-stock analysis for web-based publications since 2016.

托馬斯·尼爾(Thomas Niel),InvestorPlace.com,自2016年以來一直在為基於網絡的出版物撰寫單一股票分析。

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