How to Reduce Investment Risk
Three Common Position Sizing Methods
Are you feeling stressed holding a full position during an extended bear market? But when you finally make up your mind to sell, the market may suddenly rise, causing you to miss out on potential profits.
This kind of situation can be discouraging, but there is a potential solution.
How to avoid such a discouraging situation? Position sizing may be a solution.
Position sizing is a strategy that helps investors decide how much money to allocate toward stocks relative to the available cash.
By taking a moderate position, investors may help reduce losses in a downtrend and still earn a potential return when the trend shifts upwards.
So how to size position exactly? Let's look at three common methods.
No.1 funnel or inverted pyramid position sizing.
If investors anticipate a stock will continue moving downward but the drop may not be significant, they may consider buying in batches, with each investment amount larger than the previous one.
This approach has a proportional shape resembling a funnel.
For example, investors may start by investing only 10% of total capital and then invest another 20% after a price drop.
Similarly, investors may continue increasing their position as the stock makes lower lows.
In this way, investors may average the overall cost of holding the stock even if they fail to buy at the bottom.
However, if investors’ judgment is completely wrong with the stock continuing to fall, they may be trapped in a high but losing position.
To help mitigate this risk, investors can widen the interval between trades or wait for a larger price drop. For example, they can take a 20% fall instead of a 10% one as a buying signal.
No.2, rectangular position sizing.
This approach involves fixed position sizes for each investment round, such as 1/3, 1/4, or 1/5 of total capital, resembling a rectangle.
Like the previous method, it has pros and cons, and investors can adjust the proportion or interval time to help mitigate risks.
For example, investors can choose to take on a low position each time with a larger interval.
No.3, pyramid position sizing.
This method involves investing a high percentage of the total capital, say 40%, into the stock in the beginning.
If the market trends downward, investors may pause.
But if the bullish trend continues, investors may consider adding their position, each time at a lower percentage. Investors' whole position would look like a pyramid.
In this case, investors hold a relatively high position at the beginning, which may bring higher potential returns if the stock continues to advance.
Meanwhile, this method leaves room to increase investors’ position if the uptrend continues, which may boost potential returns.
But on the downside, since the initial position accounts for a high proportion, this method might cause investors a higher loss if their judgment is wrong.
To sum up, investors can use funnel, rectangular, and pyramid methods to size the position.
However, it's important to understand that no method is perfect, and we must choose the one that best suits the current market conditions and individual circumstances.
By using proper position sizing strategies, we can invest more flexibly while balancing our potential return and risk.