Consumers' one-year inflation expectations have climbed to 3.3%, the highest since last November, after hovering around 3% for the past four months. Expectations for long-term inflation and home price increases have also risen. At the same time, confidence in finding new employment if current jobs are lost has dropped to a three-year low. The proportion of consumers expecting to be ...
The meeting will conclude on Wednesday with an interest rate policy decision and a subsequent press conference featuring Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. While investors are anxiously awaiting the policy announcement, they are largely pricing in that the borrowing rate remains unchanged. Fed funds futures were indicating virtually no chance of a cut at this week’s meeting, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. Before the Fe...
Meanwhile, odds of another rate HIKE this year are now down to 8%, according to Kalshi. The odds of zero rate cuts in 2024 have dropped to just 28% and odds of just 1 rate cut are down to 25%. Once again, markets are beginning to buy into the "Fed pivot" narrative even as inflation is back on the rise. This comes after the Bank of Canada cut interest rates today for the first time si...
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BullnBearTradingOP :
Today, Canada was the first country of the G7 to begin cutting rates. This kicks off what appears to be the first major rate cut cycle since 2020. Will the US follow or is higher for longer here to stay?
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At the same time, confidence in finding new employment if current jobs are lost has dropped to a three-year low. The proportion of consumers expecting to be ...
The May producer price index is expected to have risen 0.1% last month, according to economists polled by Dow Jones. That is down from a 0.5% increase the prior month.
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While investors are anxiously awaiting the policy announcement, they are largely pricing in that the borrowing rate remains unchanged. Fed funds futures were indicating virtually no chance of a cut at this week’s meeting, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.
Before the Fe...
The hot labour market and data are prompting the market to dial back their expectations of rate cuts this year.
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The odds of zero rate cuts in 2024 have dropped to just 28% and odds of just 1 rate cut are down to 25%.
Once again, markets are beginning to buy into the "Fed pivot" narrative even as inflation is back on the rise.
This comes after the Bank of Canada cut interest rates today for the first time si...
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The monthly increase of 4.4 points in May ISM services is the largest since early last year.
The Business Activity Index jumped 10.3 points, the largest monthly increase since March 2021.
The Price Index fell slightly but remained at a high level.
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Although voluntary quits rebounded in April, the overall trend has been downward in recent months. Hiring remained near the lowest levels since January 2018.
Swap contracts indicate traders expect the Fed to cut rates faster in 2024, leading to a short-term drop in Treasury yields.
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