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The Federal Reserve's hawk pigeon “shared”, Bowman: High inflation will continue for some time, Goulsby: We need more employment reports like Friday
Federal Reserve Governor Bowman said that as the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates, inflation will eventually fall, but he is willing to raise interest rates if future data shows that the progress of the decline in inflation has stagnated or been reversed. Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goulsby said that he is waiting for more data to determine whether inflation will fall to the target. The non-farm payrolls report is steady this Friday. The more such reports there are, the more assured he is that the economy is not overheating and that inflation has not rebounded.
The US unexpectedly “blew up” in April, and expectations of interest rate cuts were once again rekindled!
US employers cut their recruitment scale in April, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, indicating that the labor market is cooling down after experiencing strong growth at the beginning of the year.
After the Fed's decision and before the non-agricultural sector, the market expects interest rate cuts until November
After the Federal Reserve meeting, the market brought forward interest rate cuts by one month to November. At the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell unexpectedly sent a dovish signal, saying that the next interest rate move “cannot be a rate hike.” The market is beginning to interpret this as once economic data provides clear evidence that inflation is falling, interest rate cuts can be expected. According to further analysts, Powell's confidence may stem from the fact that he has probably already previewed the non-farm payrolls data to be released on Friday, so he believes that interest rates have peaked, and interest rates may be cut even if inflation continues to stick slightly. Market pricing shows that expectations for when the Federal Reserve first cut interest rates are already ahead of schedule
Asian Currencies' Recovery Only Likely Once Rate Cuts Begin
Asian currencies will likely remain under pressure versus USD in 2Q, UOB FX strategists write in a note.
Options traders don't believe Powell still predicts the possibility that the Fed will raise interest rates before the end of the year
After Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said rate hikes were “unlikely,” options traders are still predicting the possibility that the central bank may raise borrowing costs before the end of this year
Inflation is hanging again! Productivity growth slowed, and the increase in labor costs in the US in the first quarter was the biggest in a year
Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that due to a slowdown in productivity growth, the increase in labor costs in the first quarter of the year was the biggest in the first quarter. This means that after a significant slowdown in growth in this indicator in the second half of 2023, there was a sharp jump, which may increase the risk that US inflation will continue to be high. According to specific data, the initial value of labor costs for non-farm units in the US in the first quarter was 4.7%, which was much higher than the expected 3.6%. The previous value was only 0.4%. The unit labor cost, that is, the cost an enterprise pays an employee to produce a unit of output after taking into account changes in productivity, is rising at an annual rate of 4.7%.
“New Federal Reserve News Agency”: No matter what Powell “says”, in the end, inflation has the final say
Nick Timiraos, a reporter from the New Federal Reserve News Agency and the Wall Street Journal, wrote that the current market's tendency to determine the Federal Reserve is not that important; what is more critical is economic and inflation data.
Keep interest rates unchanged! The Federal Reserve admits that the rate of cooling inflation has stagnated, and QT has been slowing since June
The Zhitong Finance App learned that on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced that it will keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25% to 5.5% as scheduled, while pointing out that the rate of cooling inflation has come to a standstill recently. This indicates that unless the economy recedes, the Federal Reserve will maintain a wait-and-see attitude and wait for a better time to adjust interest rates. In a policy statement issued on the same day, the Federal Reserve emphasized the lack of further progress in reducing inflation in recent months. Previously, the Federal Reserve believed that the US economy was entering a better balance in achieving the goals of price stability and full employment. However, the latest statement suggests that this improvement has stalled and over the past year
Powell stressed that future decisions will be extremely prudent, implying that interest rates will remain high for a long time
Powell's statement showed that the Federal Reserve is cautious about upcoming economic challenges, while underscoring the flexibility of monetary policy and continued concern for inflation
Compare the full text of the Federal Reserve's resolution with the statements of the last two monetary policy meetings
The main content of this article is the full statement issued by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve after the April 30-May 1 monetary policy meeting and a comparison of the statements of the last two meetings.
In April, “small non-farmers” grew more than expected, and expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut receded
The recruitment situation in various industries generally improved in April, dominated by the leisure industry; the wage growth rate of those who changed jobs slowed to 9.3% compared to the same period last year.
Has the clock stopped for interest rate cuts? Tonight, the market focuses on the Federal Reserve!
The market generally anticipates that the Federal Reserve will continue to “stand still” and may begin to slow down QT, focusing on Powell's post-meeting speech.
Federal Reserve Decision Preview: Whether to slow down the downsizing plan may be the focus of this week's meeting
The target range of the Federal Reserve's indicator overnight interest rate has remained at 5.25%-5.50% since July last year, and the market is not expected to change during the two-day policy meeting that ends on Wednesday. Some economists say that the Federal Reserve may announce the end of the balance-sheet reduction plan as early as this week's policy meeting. However, the interest rate outlook is uncertain due to high inflation, which may delay the “downsizing” statement until June.
Blackstone: Inflation is still high, and the market will keep an eye on whether Powell will release a signal of potential interest rate hikes
On Wednesday, the market will pay close attention to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's information on whether inflation concerns may lead to interest rate hikes
“New Federal Reserve News Agency” looks ahead to this week's FOMC meeting! Interest rate policies, QT reduction, and inflation have all been mentioned!
Timiraos quoted the Chinese proverb “do nothing to fix” at the beginning of the article, believing that this might summarize the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate policy policy. The Federal Reserve may emphasize that it is preparing to keep interest rates unchanged for longer than previously anticipated. Powell may say that the economic forecast released in March is out of date. For the time being, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to see a hawkish shift that suggests that interest rate hikes are more likely than interest rate cuts. Timiraos is uncertain whether the Federal Reserve will officially announce a reduction in QT at this meeting.
Gold Falls as the Dollar, Yields Move Higher Ahead of a Fed Interest Rate Decision
Gold traded sharply lower early on Tuesday with the dollar and yields rising as the Federal Reserve's policy committee begins its two-day meeting that is expected to end with interest rates unchanged.
US workers' wages accelerated in the first quarter, and inflationary pressure may worry the Federal Reserve
On the evening of the 30th, Beijing time, a report released by the US Department of Labor shows that in the first quarter of this year, American workers' wages, pay and benefits grew at a faster rate. This trend may lead to a rise in inflation and raise concerns about the Federal Reserve's policy path to counter future price increases. The US Department of Labor said on Tuesday that from January to March this year, workers' pay as measured by the government employment cost index rose 1.2% month-on-month, up from 0.9% in the previous quarter. Compared with the same period last year, compensation increased 4.2% year over year, the same increase as the previous quarter. What is certain is that increases in wages and benefits are beneficial to employees, but they may
The haze of inflation looms over! Labor costs in the US accelerated in the first quarter, the biggest increase in a year
The labor cost index favored by the Federal Reserve has heated up more than expected, indicating that the popularity of the US job market is unabated, and expectations of interest rate cuts will further subside.
The effects of this round of “money printers” in the US: M1 rose 43%, the stock market rose 26%, and CPI rose 11%, but the real economy did not change much
After all, the long-term growth of the real economy cannot be driven by fiscal stimulus.
Will the Federal Reserve eagles this week? Economist: Cutting interest rates now is probably harder than raising interest rates
A preview of the Federal Reserve's May meeting.