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Dollar Crisis Warning: The US economy is weak, and non-farm data will trigger the market!
The US economy has not shown any major danger signals, but some small worries are accumulating. The manufacturing PMI was in contraction range on Monday. As weak economic data gives the Federal Reserve a strong inclination towards loose policies, the dollar is declining. This Friday, the dollar will face the challenge of May's non-farm employment data.
Forex strategists' survey: If the US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the US dollar will weaken in the next year.
Forex strategists believe that the recent sustained strengthening of the US dollar will give way to a slight weakening in the next 12 months. They generally believe that the US dollar is overvalued.
Former US Treasury Secretary Summers: Interest rates will remain high in the long term, with a neutral interest rate of 4.5%, and inflation won't return to 2%.
Despite the decline in inflation and economic slowdown, the Federal Reserve continues to maintain the highest interest rates in decades. Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers believes that the era of low interest rates is gone and long-term interest rates will continue to rise, with neutral interest rates far higher than the Fed's expectations. On Tuesday local time, Summers said in a New York Economic Club online seminar: In the foreseeable future, the market should be accustomed to the current range of interest rates and even the long-term interest rates that are higher than the current level. He also believes that inflation has not gone on a convincing trajectory and is difficult to achieve in the United States.
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers: Federal Reserve has little room to cut interest rates, neutral rate expected at 4.5%.
During a discussion at the New York Economic Club on Tuesday, Eastern Time, Professor Lawrence Summers of Harvard University and Glenn Hubbard, former chairman of the Economic Advisory Council for President George W. Bush, discussed the future economic trends and monetary policy direction of the United States. Summers estimates that the US neutral interest rate is about 4.5%, higher than the Federal Reserve's forecast of 2.6%. Summers pointed out that there is currently no...
Forex Today: The Dollar Regains Some Composure Ahead of Upcoming Data
The USD Index (DXY) advanced slightly after briefly testing two-month lows near 104.00. On June 5, MBA’s Mortgage Applications are due seconded by ADP Employment Change, the final S&P Global Services PMI and the ISM Services PMI.
US Dollar Sees Moderate Gains Despite Soft Labor Market Data
USD manages to hold its ground on Tuesday after sharp losses on Monday due to disappointing May ISM PMIs.