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DadOnARun : it's nothing until it's something. until it's something this is just hype. 3 tours into the M East, chasing and securing the red sea is a monthly event. just view a map that shows allies vs enemies. it's a mess
SpyderCallOP DadOnARun: Heard. Sometimes, it seems like the media just needs something to blame for the spiking energy prices or rallying military industrial stocks
SpyderCallOP :
@ThirtyOne
Check it out. I know you were asking about $United States Gasoline Fund Lp (UGA.US)$ the other day. We might see a swing up soon. I'm still trying to decide wether to go long or not. I can't find any news or any type of catalyst for this pop so I am still skeptical.
ThirtyOne SpyderCallOP: I appreciate it! Yea I have been watching this with UNG
TinkerB3ll SpyderCallOP: Agree personally now look to go long but again NG is so highly manipulated
SpyderCallOP TinkerB3ll: That is exactly why I am skeptical. I feel like the manipulation could be at its highest ever since the Russian war/Nat gas supply issues.
Ultratechman TinkerB3ll: ng is heavily shorted that's why kold when ung is high
GNRForever : When they see red, they will change their tune
iamiam :
I was bearish just for relief, because in real life it's all bullish - it's a fight for certain oil and we are buying diesel like crazy, along with everyone else
its creating problems that will present themselves in the future.
Just today (because of the cost of diesel) we pushed up a bunch of projects and filed a bunch of breach of contracts because some people (and govt entities) are reluctant to pay the higher cost and think price will come down (a big part with govt is they are reluctant/stubborn to use different materials and want what they call for in their specifications but they all have the same specs so everyone is chasing the same manufacturers and materials *hello more govt caused inflation*)
Say you do order something and now they tell you we'll give you a price when we deliver it in 6-12 months and you can expect a higher price.
Anyways I'm tired and rambling,
but jpow-wow actually said today the FED can't control commodity, energy and food price inflation and that's why they dont track it. Let that sink in. This is going to end ugly but first it will be glorious. The FED cant land this, inflation wont be controlled until they crush demand but then they CRUSH DEMAND sorry for the ramble finishing my post and barely keep my eyes open
SpyderCallOP iamiam: No that’s good stuff. I must have been distracted when he said he the fed doesnt track commodities for inflation. Thats pretty wild. Crushing demand seems to be the only thing they can at least try to do. Volker Era Incoming
SpyderCallOP iamiam: And its funny because the other day it looked like a lot of commodities and oil were going for a small leg down and then boom EU bans Russian Oil. Couldn’t have planned it better myself
solo invest : EU banning Russian oil. Yikes. I hope the EU can survive this. I’m sure they already have a plan in place.
BelleWeather : I think proper portfolio positioning vis a vis inflation is important. The concern I have is stagflation, so I’m trying to be defensive to that. This is difficult. And timing the market is impossible and crazy-making, so I personally am taking each day as it comes.
I don’t think anyone is going to sell off over these concerns, and Powell is not about to fan those flames either!
SpyderCallOP BelleWeather: They might not sell over these concerns. But when these variables are present, then any negative catalyst will likely catalyze a selloff. For example, if we get bad rhetoric from Powell next week, then we might see extra volatility. That being said, in the current environment, any selloff will be a good buying opportunity until something breaks in the economy.
SpyderCallOP BelleWeather: So far, wages and employment numbers have held up, so stagflation is not a concern until inflation picks back up. With the way oil and gasoline prices have been climbing, we could possibly see a stagflationary environment soon, but not yet. Things are almost perfect in the economic data currently. We are in a goldilocks zone for the Fed right now. And if things get worse, then the Fed has already mentioned cutting rates. That would be even more accomodative for equities as the "Fed Put" will be in play at that point. So, if we do see stagflation, it shouldn't last long as the Fed will accommodate markets when the inflation, wages, or employment situation changes negatively.
BelleWeather : Agreed on the Goldilocks zone vis a vis the Fed mandate save one issue - the reserve bank balance is almost out - won’t they have to move to correct that?
SpyderCallOP BelleWeather: They have been greatly decreasing the balance sheet since march 2022. This is done through selling treasury bonds or mortgage securities. Short-term treasuries, like bills, have been the biggest culprits for the runoff of the balance sheet. This has been unwinding the massive amount of asset purchases since the 2008 financial crisis.
They purchased all of these assets back then as a form of quantative easing to boost the economy. Right now, they are selling treasury notes at sky-high yields to provide liquidity to banks essentially. This is putting more liabilities onto the balance sheet, which brings the balance down.
I don't think the balance sheet runoff is such a big deal at the moment.
Once the economy is showing signs of trouble, then I think we will need to worry about the Fed balance sheet. If they start buying assets, essentially quantative easing, then they might think that there is weakness in the economy.
You might think that with the Fed balance falling like it is, then long-term treasuries should be falling along with the balance. But that has not been the case since last November as these treasuries have been climbing.
This tells me that the balance sheet is now falling because the Fed is adding liquidity through short-term bond sales, which inject liquidity into the economy, which is good for an economy and equities.
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