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Gold Market Analysis: US retail data shows consumer fatigue, gold rebounds slightly boosted.
Wang Gang, the Bank of China's Guangdong Provincial Branch, said that Tuesday's retail sales data showed signs of fatigue among American consumers. The slowdown in retail sales growth, coupled with rising prices and interest rates, forced families to prioritize basic necessities and cut discretionary spending. The Federal Reserve's tight financial conditions this year seem to have finally put pressure on household budgets. The weaker-than-expected retail sales report increased the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates within several months. Federal funds rate futures indicate a 67% chance of at least one rate cut by the Fed before the end of September, up from 63% a day ago.
Gold market analysis: lack of significant fundamental news, gold starts the week on a downward trend.
Wang Gang, Bank of China's Guangdong branch, stated that on Monday, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rebounded after a sharp drop last week, reducing the attractiveness of non-interest-bearing gold to investors. Currently, there is a lack of significant new fundamental news in the market, so investors are looking for direction from external markets until the next major fundamental catalyst appears. The speeches of Federal Reserve officials this week may have some impact. If the Fed officials still adhere to their hawkish attitude of only one rate cut this year, it may put pressure on gold.
Gold trading reminder: hawkish speech from the Fed boosts US bond yields rebound, causing gold prices to fall slightly, pay attention to "terrifying data".
On Monday, the gold price fell by 0.6%, closing at $2318.82 per ounce, because Federal Reserve officials continued to deliver hawkish speeches, which helped push up US Treasury yields. Investors are waiting for more US data and speeches by Fed officials this week to get more clues about the currency policy outlook. Traders are currently closely watching speeches from New York Fed President Williams and Fed Director Cook later. Investors also need to pay close attention to US retail sales data (commonly known as "horror data") released on Tuesday.
Gold spot is in a consolidation phase, with support at $2300 remaining strong.
After rising more than 1% last Friday, gold was at a disadvantage at the beginning of a new week. The ideal situation at the beginning of this week is for the bulls to push the gold price above the short-term put trendline near $2360. Although there were several attempts to fall below $2300, this resistance level remains strong.
Weekly gold analysis: Bulls end three consecutive declines, will the gold price restart the bull market? Most analysts are bullish on the future.
The gold market maintained a steady upward trend before the weekend, but there was no significant reaction due to the continued decline in confidence among US consumers and high inflation expectations. Spot gold rose 1.22% last Friday (June 14), closing at $2332.10 per ounce and fluctuating upward throughout the day. It increased by 1.71% last week.
Gold market analysis: Gold price fell instead of rising due to an unexpected decrease in U.S. PPI.
Bank of China's Guangdong branch manager Wang Gang stated in May that US producer prices unexpectedly fell. Combined with the weak CPI data released on Wednesday, it indicates that US inflation has eased somewhat after soaring in the first quarter. However, gold this week has not been able to recover under the influence of bullish data and instead has turned downwards, indicating that the pressure to take profits is still heavy. Influenced by the hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve, the US dollar remained strong on Thursday, and gold also failed to break away from the trend of profit-taking adjustment.