GNRForever : Runes was just adopted … your analysis does not have direction … people adopting or not adopting runes will not impact mining stock profitability this quarter, stop spreading doom and gloom scenarios
egan1OP GNRForever: I mean just look at the graph and compare it to the stock performance of these companies, they are very correlated. I think a drop is a likely scenario. they don't make money. The underperformance compared to Bitcoin over the last year and the short interest show that investors are getting tired of always being 1 quarter away from gaap profitability. they didn't make money during the bull run of 2021 and they won't make money now especially with block rewards down from then.
GNRForever egan1OP: Why would a drop be a likely scenario when we are 2 weeks away from earnings? Why would you sell now know that since September bitcoin prices have surged? Why would you not wait until earnings and then take profits? Again, you make no practical sense … let’s get this straight … I am holding mining stocks and I am going to sell before earnings release during of the quarter with the greatest price increase of the commodity I am mining? Hmm … it is not even at any local high? Last three months this stock traded at 15-17 range, my prediction is that it will break 20 because of (1) positive earnings and (2) bitcoin will break hit 70k again.
egan1OP GNRForever: because a gold mine doesn't have their production slashed by 1/2 and they don't need to buy new shovels every 2 years. there is no barrier to entry in btc mining and the market is as close to perfect competition you can possibly get in the real world. firms in perfect competition have an avg expected profit of exactly $0.
GNRForever : Runes was just implemented, you are making a large assumption … Riot earnings in May, are you claiming that they will not have positive significant earnings this quarter? Typical lame short seller trying to convince us of doom and gloom outlook so they can swing trade and buy on the cheap. Scum.
egan1OP GNRForever: short sellers are a positive thing for markets over all they help prevent the formation of bubbles, catch fraud faster than regulators and we sell when the company has no trouble raising capital and buy shares later down the line when many investors are unwilling to leading to lower volatility in markets. and yes i am betting on worse financial performance next quarter as their cost of revenue just got a 25% increase... its a pretty basic trade all things considered.
GNRForever egan1OP:
Their cost of revenue is a recent event … this happened a couple days ago … you might have a point maybe 2 or may 1 quarter from now but this quarter there is a zero chance they will not have a giant windfall in earnings.
However, you are totally wrong anyways … they interviewed Riot Platforms CEO and they are able to time the halving so they are ahead of the cost of curve in terms of energy cost by a significant amount … so your conjecture is wrong .. and this is why short sellers don’t add anything to the market as you claim they do.
You can’t sell stocks you don’t own and an investor can also pick up on those things, what mostly short sellers do is they purposely destroy a company for gain at the expense of legitimate long term investors … time and time again … we have seen scum short sellers be proven wrong like in the case of Tesla and Herbalife.
egan1OP GNRForever: first markets are forward looking and we are going to get guidance on q2 next earnings call. and second even if we sold every single share multiple times and pushed it to 0 the company wouldn't go under... we don't control how the company does. We can't force a company into bankruptcy the only time short sellers have any effect on the health of the company is when it's already in such rough shape we make it difficult to raise capital and they go under bc they couldn't get new debt to pay off old debt. once the shares are sold the price has little effect on the health of the company, fundamentals, however, do and miners have bad fundamentals across the board. also electricity cost is not my concern it's depreciation and amortization of the ASICs on their balance sheet.
GNRForever egan1OP: I call bs on your entire reply … Bill Ackman tried for years to bankrupt Herbalife. Short sellers tried for years to bankrupt Tesla? Wtf are you talking about? Miner companies are aware of the economics of the bitcoin market … they have interviewed the CEO of many mining companies including Riot and they can time the halving so they prepare and they don’t assume prices of bitcoin will go up … your entire argument that somehow the cost of energy will bankrupt miners when they already have made arrangements for this event. Forward looking? Earning results will be positive, stocks go up, then you take profits, why are adding 2nd order condition for miners? Because you are have incentive to promote doom and gloom to get investors to sell. Scum.
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