$RBOB Gasoline Futures(JUL4)(RBmain.US)$gas and oil probably going to get insane with yesterday's news oil rocket with oil stocks barely going up weird wonder if oil stocks will follow
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US)$ Intraday Market Crash The major indices took a nose dive today. The day started off somewhat bullish but ended on a very bad note. Markets have been very over extended for quite a while now, and many investors have been anticipating a correction very soon. Is what we saw today the start of the correction everyone has been waiting for? Bearish Technicals The first warning sign that I see in the technical picture is the fact th...
RIPPER :
Am I the only one who saw this fall coming? I’m confused because seems like most out there were caught off guard. All week long, I have had a gut feeling this exact fall was going to occur simply from my constant close observation of the moving averages. The patterns and overall movement of moving averages (throughout all time frames)TELL A STORY. Only saying that because I’m not the best trader in any way, shape or form, but it seems even the pros didn’t see it coming
RIPPERSpyderCallOP:
Yep, I had a couple of BIG bangers today. It’s a good idea right now, to sort through the tickers with the most meat on the bone, lowest IV that appear to be topped out. Yes, most I’m looking at appear to be completely topped out. If my original theory is correct, and this is the initial stage of transitioning from bull run to bear, then we are about to have some of the best opportunities of the entire quarter.
All Eyes on the Upcoming Fed Meeting With interest rates and inflation being the main concern for investors these days, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision coming this Wednesday. Many analysts are calling for a resurgence in inflation. While the Federal Reserve has been standing by their word, saying that inflation is under control and we are on the path towards rate cuts this year. If the Fed believes that inflation is no longer...
BelleWeather :
I think proper portfolio positioning vis a vis inflation is important. The concern I have is stagflation, so I’m trying to be defensive to that. This is difficult. And timing the market is impossible and crazy-making, so I personally am taking each day as it comes. I don’t think anyone is going to sell off over these concerns, and Powell is not about to fan those flames either!
SpyderCallOPBelleWeather:
They might not sell over these concerns. But when these variables are present, then any negative catalyst will likely catalyze a selloff. For example, if we get bad rhetoric from Powell next week, then we might see extra volatility. That being said, in the current environment, any selloff will be a good buying opportunity until something breaks in the economy.
SpyderCallOPBelleWeather:
So far, wages and employment numbers have held up, so stagflation is not a concern until inflation picks back up. With the way oil and gasoline prices have been climbing, we could possibly see a stagflationary environment soon, but not yet. Things are almost perfect in the economic data currently. We are in a goldilocks zone for the Fed right now. And if things get worse, then the Fed has already mentioned cutting rates. That would be even more accomodative for equities as the "Fed Put" will be in play at that point. So, if we do see stagflation, it shouldn't last long as the Fed will accommodate markets when the inflation, wages, or employment situation changes negatively.
BelleWeather :
Agreed on the Goldilocks zone vis a vis the Fed mandate save one issue - the reserve bank balance is almost out - won’t they have to move to correct that?
SpyderCallOPBelleWeather:
They have been greatly decreasing the balance sheet since march 2022. This is done through selling treasury bonds or mortgage securities. Short-term treasuries, like bills, have been the biggest culprits for the runoff of the balance sheet. This has been unwinding the massive amount of asset purchases since the 2008 financial crisis. They purchased all of these assets back then as a form of quantative easing to boost the economy. Right now, they are selling treasury notes at sky-high yields to provide liquidity to banks essentially. This is putting more liabilities onto the balance sheet, which brings the balance down. I don't think the balance sheet runoff is such a big deal at the moment. Once the economy is showing signs of trouble, then I think we will need to worry about the Fed balance sheet. If they start buying assets, essentially quantative easing, then they might think that there is weakness in the economy. You might think that with the Fed balance falling like it is, then long-term treasuries should be falling along with the balance. But that has not been the case since last November as these treasuries have been climbing. This tells me that the balance sheet is now falling because the Fed is adding liquidity through short-term bond sales, which inject liquidity into the economy, which is good for an economy and equities.
DadOnARun :
it's nothing until it's something. until it's something this is just hype. 3 tours into the M East, chasing and securing the red sea is a monthly event. just view a map that shows allies vs enemies. it's a mess
SpyderCallOPDadOnARun:
Heard. Sometimes, it seems like the media just needs something to blame for the spiking energy prices or rallying military industrial stocks
SpyderCallOP小鸟凸人:
Data on oil inventories released earlier. It is bringing down crude prices. But nat gas is holding up nicely after the Nat gas storage data was released.
$Crude Oil Futures(JUL4)(CLmain.US)$ Macro Fundamentals Crude futures price has been facing a lot of pressure lately. This is partly caused by the fears of diminishing demand due to the very high interest rate environment we're currently experiencing. Recently, the Biden administration lifted sanctions on Venezuelan oil. This will bring more oil to the markets increasing supply. Since commodities prices are determined by the laws of supply and demand,...
wooperSpyderCallOP:
Please set a trailing stop loss on sell orders of .10 cents to .04 cents to prevent loss Get ready! We're dropping a SPECIAL PROFILE ALERT for tomorrow's play TODAY at 4PM EST! Don't miss this! Set Sail, Navigating Through Economic Waves! Yesterday, we saw a 53.28% move from the long side. Let's keep that momentum rolling! Today's crucial signals: RSLS Long > 0.3335 Short < 0.3125 BTAI Long > 3.45 Short < 3.16 NVVE Long > 0.1965 Short < 0.1675 LMDX Long > 0.1790 Short < 0.1600 Remember, timing is everything. Keep an eye out and let's dominate today.
Mike HuntOP :
@SpyderCalldo the technicals support my call of a reversal couple days ago? Seems like heavy resistance at 3.18-3.19. But I’m just eyeballing it. It seems like it’s been rejected a couple of times there. I’m long on RBOB from 2.99. Wondering if I take profit and run or not. Looked like an uptrend last couple days. I almost sold on the big drop to 3.06 but it didn’t seem like it breached the trend line so I held.
SpyderCallMike HuntOP:
it looks like you are going to turn out to be right. I bounced off a solid support level. it's a shorter term support level but it's still bounce. and it looks like it's about to break out of the price channel put in the picture. that will be short-term bullish for sure. damn if it breaks out it looks like you called the bottom on that thing. Big Mike coming in clutch with the bottom call I should mention that if price does want to come down I put a couple lower support zones some horizontal zones and upward trending zones. if it does get below that 2.99 then I would watch those areas for sure. this actually does look like a good play to the upside. but personally I'm not as bullish on oil and other commodities is as most people are at the moment. so myself I would be taking profit on the way up on this one. that is just me though. I was talking to a bunch of people at the bar last night and they think oil and gas is still going to skyrocket even higher. and many of these dudes are working for the oil companies in one way shape or form.
$RBOB Gasoline Futures(JUL4)(RBmain.US)$California state gas taxes are about 30 cents per gallon above national average... San Franciso's current average of $4.75 gallon is $1.35/gallon over current national average of $3.40 gallon... The "clean air" formulations required in California run an estimated 5 cents per gallon.. Oil companies and refineries jack up their prices in California because they can... greed, plain and simple. The roughly 35 cents in increases from taxes and reformulated gasoline no way justifies the premium charged in California. Another question to answer... Why does California gas prices spike when there is disruption of production in Gulf state producers... when only a very small amount of crude used and refined in California comes from Gulf suppliers?
$RBOB Gasoline Futures(JUL4)(RBmain.US)$California state gas taxes are about 30 cents per gallon above national average... San Franciso's current average of $4.75 gallon is $1.35/gallon over current national average of $3.40 gallon... The "clean air" formulations required in California run an estimated 5 cents per gallon.. Oil companies and refineries jack up their prices in California because they can... greed, plain and simple. The roughly 35 cents in increases from taxes and reformulated gasoline no way justifies the premium charged in California. Another question to answer... Why does California gas prices spike when there is disruption of production in Gulf state producers... when only a very small amount of crude used and refined in California comes from Gulf suppliers?
RBOB Gasoline Futures(JUL4) Forum
Intraday Market Crash
The major indices took a nose dive today. The day started off somewhat bullish but ended on a very bad note. Markets have been very over extended for quite a while now, and many investors have been anticipating a correction very soon. Is what we saw today the start of the correction everyone has been waiting for?
Bearish Technicals
The first warning sign that I see in the technical picture is the fact th...
With interest rates and inflation being the main concern for investors these days, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision coming this Wednesday.
Many analysts are calling for a resurgence in inflation. While the Federal Reserve has been standing by their word, saying that inflation is under control and we are on the path towards rate cuts this year.
If the Fed believes that inflation is no longer...
$Crude Oil Futures(JUL4)(CLmain.US)$ $Brent Last Day Financial Futures(JUL4)(BZmain.US)$ $RBOB Gasoline Futures(JUL4)(RBmain.US)$ $United States Oil Fund LP(USO.US)$ $United Sts Brent Oil Fd Lp Unit(BNO.US)$ $United States Gasoline Fund Lp(UGA.US)$
It's official. Nat gas is bullish in the short-term picture. How long will this uptick last?
$Crude Oil Futures(JUL4)(CLmain.US)$
Oil has been getting a nice boost the past couple of days. The trend in oil could flip to bullish pretty soon if we see a little more upside. Here is my TA for crude futures in the link below.
Worsening Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East
As always, I am not a financial professional, and this...
Macro Fundamentals
Crude futures price has been facing a lot of pressure lately. This is partly caused by the fears of diminishing demand due to the very high interest rate environment we're currently experiencing.
Recently, the Biden administration lifted sanctions on Venezuelan oil. This will bring more oil to the markets increasing supply. Since commodities prices are determined by the laws of supply and demand,...
$RBOB Gasoline Futures(JUL4)(RBmain.US)$
oil price goes up. but prices at the pump is lower? possible short squeeze potential.
San Franciso's current average of $4.75 gallon is $1.35/gallon over current national average of $3.40 gallon...
The "clean air" formulations required in California run an estimated 5 cents per gallon..
Oil companies and refineries jack up their prices in California because they can... greed, plain and simple. The roughly 35 cents in increases from taxes and reformulated gasoline no way justifies the premium charged in California.
Another question to answer... Why does California gas prices spike when there is disruption of production in Gulf state producers... when only a very small amount of crude used and refined in California comes from Gulf suppliers?
San Franciso's current average of $4.75 gallon is $1.35/gallon over current national average of $3.40 gallon...
The "clean air" formulations required in California run an estimated 5 cents per gallon..
Oil companies and refineries jack up their prices in California because they can... greed, plain and simple. The roughly 35 cents in increases from taxes and reformulated gasoline no way justifies the premium charged in California.
Another question to answer... Why does California gas prices spike when there is disruption of production in Gulf state producers... when only a very small amount of crude used and refined in California comes from Gulf suppliers?
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