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The Federal Reserve needs more evidence to confirm that the path to cooling inflation is unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term
This week, Federal Reserve officials received evidence that inflation continues to fall (albeit fluctuating), but policymakers are unlikely to change their positions where more evidence is needed. The Zhitong Finance App learned that government data released on Friday showed that the basic inflation index preferred by the Federal Reserve cooled down last month, and the growth rate was the slowest since this year. Additionally, consumers cut spending in April as the economy grew slower than expected in the first quarter. These reports paint a picture of a moderate economic slowdown, which is what policymakers want to see, and dispels concerns about a renewed acceleration in price growth. But officials may look for it after the next few weeks of meetings
Japan did not succeed in spending 62 billion US dollars to boost the yen, and the yen exchange rate dilemma is difficult to solve
The yen exchange rate dilemma is difficult to resolve, and the Bank of Japan is now in a dilemma. On Friday May 31, Japan's Ministry of Finance released data showing that in order to support Japan's continued weakness, the Japanese government carried out two significant monetary interventions between April 26 and May 29, investing a record 9.8 trillion yen (about 62 billion US dollars). Most of the capital was spent within four days starting April 29. However, the impact of this huge amount of money invested by Japan on the exchange rate was short-lived. At the end of April, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the yen rose from 160 to 151.85, but just a few days later, the exchange rate on Friday fell back to 1
Express News | US April Core PCE Price Index YoY 2.8% Vs 2.8% Forecast, Prior 2.8%
Oil prices fall as Federal Reserve officials hint they won't cut interest rates
Remarks by Federal Reserve officials about keeping interest rates stable led to a drop in oil prices. U.S. gasoline inventories increased by 2 million barrels, indicating a decline in demand. OPEC+ negotiations will extend sharp production cuts to 2025 and stabilize the market.
Exchange rate forecast for next week = there is also a possibility that price movements will increase due to speculations surrounding Japan-US monetary policy
There is a possibility that price movements will increase in the dollar-yen exchange rate next week as speculations surrounding Japan-US monetary policy intersect. The forecast range is 1 dollar = 155 yen 50 yen to 158 yen 50 sen.
Will the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator reach a 3-year low?
After the CPI cooled down in April, the progress of US inflation was tested again by key data. Today at 20:30 Beijing time (8:30 a.m. EST), the US Department of Commerce will release PCE data for April. The market currently expects the overall PCE price index to rise 0.3% month-on-month in April, in line with the previous value, and is expected to remain flat at 2.7% year-on-year. The core PCE price index rose 0.3% month-on-month, in line with the previous value. The core PCE price index is expected to remain flat at 2.8% year over year. If the year-on-year increase slows slightly, then the core PCE price index will be the one since April 2021