GF Securities: US core inflation continues to fall, and the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates has increased
The Zhitong Finance App learned that GF Securities released a research report to analyze the reasons and trends of the decline in core inflation in the US. The team believes that the overall US inflation data for April 2024 was in line with market expectations, and the year-on-year decline continued. Among them, the growth rate of rental housing prices, which accounts for 35%, declined slightly; super core inflation (excluding core services other than housing) also cooled down month-on-month; core commodity prices continued to fall in April, but the pace slowed down. Furthermore, since this year, the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut have been “going back and forth”. The main background is the continuous fluctuation in employment and inflation data and the back-and-forth of the Fed's statements.
Is tomorrow's exchange rate forecast = a solid development for the dollar
The dollar-yen exchange rate in the foreign exchange market from tonight to tomorrow is likely to remain steady due to awareness of the desire to buy at a lower price. The forecast range is 1 dollar = 153 yen 80 yen to 155 yen 00 sen.
StashAway: Optimistic that the US delays interest rate cuts, the Fed's policy shift may benefit emerging markets in Asia
Investors can focus their thinking on “when to cut interest rates” and “how much” rather than “whether interest rates will be cut in the end”. As the US begins to cut interest rates, investors may see an increase in capital flows as cash flow increases, thereby benefiting emerging markets in Asia.
Japanese Yen Falls After Economy Contracts More Than Expected in Q1
The Japanese yen fell against the US dollar and some other major currencies in early European trade on Thursday after government data showed the economy contracted more than was expected in the opening quarter.
The Q1 economic decline exceeded expectations and cast a shadow over the Bank of Japan's path to raise interest rates
The Zhitong Finance App learned that as the weak yen continued to hit consumers, Japan's economy declined faster than expected in the first quarter, which posed a new challenge for the Bank of Japan to further raise interest rates. According to preliminary data released on Thursday, Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) fell 2.0% year on year in the first quarter, a decline greater than the 1.5% expected by economists. The downwardly revised data shows that Japan's GDP grew little in the fourth quarter of 2023 due to lower capital expenditure expectations. The weak economy is making it difficult for the Bank of Japan to control. In March of this year, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the first time since 2007. Since then, it has been hinted that it is intended
Ichimoku Cloud Analysis: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD
GBP/USD is rising within a bullish channel. The pair is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend.
The possibility that the Fed will cut interest rates this year is showing that the dollar is weakening and the yen is fleeing the intervention zone
The US dollar generally weakened against other currencies, and the yen became one of the major currencies that rose the most.
Japan's Economy Shrinks Again as Inflation Hits Consumers' Pocketbooks
By Megumi Fujikawa TOKYO -- The Japanese economy contracted in the first quarter of 2024, extending a rough patch and signaling that inflation fueled by a weak yen is hurting consumer demand. The econ
Forex Today: US Dollar Stays Under Pressure Following Post-CPI Selloff
The US Dollar (USD) is struggling to stage a rebound after suffering large losses against its major rivals following the April inflation data from the US on Wednesday.
The yen's departure from the region suspected of triggering intervention before the easing of US inflationary pressure led to a narrowing of interest spreads between the US and Japan
The yen strengthened and gradually moved away from areas suspected of triggering intervention in recent weeks. The trend began to look similar to 2022, when weak US economic data prevented the Japanese government from taking action. Signs of easing inflationary pressure in the US prompted bets that the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy during the year. As a result, the US dollar generally weakened against other currencies, and the yen became one of the major currencies with the biggest increase. The yen rose 0.8% on Thursday, although data showed that Japan's economy contracted more than expected in the first quarter. “The latest rebound in yen reduces the need for authorities to intervene,” Market Risk Advi
Japan's Shrinking Economy Hints at Stagflationary Risk
Japan’s lack of growth over the last three quarters points to the risk of a sputtering economy transitioning toward a mild bout of stagflation instead of the positive growth cycle long sought by the central bank.
Japan's Shindo: The Economy is Expected to Continue a Moderate Recovery
Japan's Economy Minister Yoshitaka Shindo said on Thursday that Japanese economy is expected to continue moderate recovery. Shindo further stated that he will closely monitor the risks related to foreign exchange fluctuations that would push up domestic prices.
The yen rebounded against the US dollar, and the cooling of US inflation dragged down the dollar and US bond yields
The yen continued to rise during the Asian trading session on Thursday. It had already risen 1% last day. Traders increased their bets. The Federal Reserve will relax monetary policy this year due to signs that US inflationary pressure is easing. At around 09:25 Tokyo time, the yen rose to 154.11 yen against the US dollar, the strongest level since May 7. The yen rose on Wednesday, eliminating the need for the Japanese government to intervene in the market. After the US April CPI report was released, traders raised their bets that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates. The current exchange of quotes shows that the possibility that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points by the time of the September meeting is over 85%. and this
Japan GDP Falls, But Activity Could Rebound This Quarter -- Market Talk
A renewed drop in Japan GDP in 1Q mostly reflects production shutdowns at major carmakers, Capital Economics says in a note, adding that a pronounced rebound this quarter is likely.
Federal Reserve Goulsby is happy to see anti-inflation progress and says there is still room for further deceleration
Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goulsby said in an interview that he welcomed the slowdown in price growth in April, but said there is still room for further deceleration in inflation.
Japan's Economy Contracts as Consumers, Firms Cut Spending
Japan’s economy shrank in the first quarter as consumers and companies cut spending, extending a dismal performance that stretches back to last summer and complicates the picture for the central bank as it mulls the timing of its next interest rate hike.
USD/JPY Trims Losses Below 154.50 Following Japan's GDP Data
The USD/JPY pair trims losses near 154.45 during the early Asian session on Thursday.
Japan Q1 GDP Contracts 0.5% QoQ versus -0.4% expected
Japanese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1) came in at -0.5% QoQ versus -0.4% expected and 0.1% prior, the Cabinet Office showed on Thursday.
Japan 1Q GDP Estimates in Focus Amid Yen Concerns -- Market Talk
Japan preliminary estimates for 1Q GDP are in focus amid speculation about the impact of a weak yen.
Chicago Federal Reserve Governor Goolsbee praises cooling inflation and says more progress is needed
Chicago Federal Reserve Governor Austan Goolsbee welcomed the slowdown in inflation in April, but said there is still room for further decline in inflation. Goolsbee said after the release of the CPI data on Wednesday that he would like to see more such reports before supporting interest rate cuts. Recommended reading: US inflation has cooled down for the first time in six months, giving Federal Reserve officials who want to cut interest rates this year. Inflation shows “an improvement compared to the last time. It is basically in line with our expectations, but it is still higher than the level of the second half of last year,” Goolsbee said in an interview with the Marketplace radio program