Economists expect a 0.2% month-on-month increase in August PPI, with a probability of over 85% for a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week.
The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut based on producer inflation data at next week's meeting.
The Federal Reserve's 'microphone' has 'set the tone' for a 25 basis point rate cut next week, with two more expected meetings later this year.
Given the latest US core inflation exceeding expectations, the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut next week has significantly decreased. Timothy Law emphasized that in addition to paying attention to the extent of the rate cut next week, we should also note Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's view on the health of the economy. The latest expectations show that the probability of a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November is close, and the probability of a total rate cut of at least 100 basis points this year exceeds 80%.
Social Security Recipients Could See an Even Smaller Raise in 2025, as Inflation Cools -- Barrons.com
August Annual Consumer Inflation Marks Slowest Pace Since February 2021
How will the US dollar perform during this round of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts? Global policy coordination is key.
Goldman Sachs has classified each interest rate easing cycle from 1995 to 2020 as either "coordinated" or "uncoordinated". Recently, several G10 central banks have begun to loosen monetary policy. Goldman Sachs believes that this can create a relatively coordinated global easing cycle, which will help alleviate downward pressure on the US dollar from the Fed's interest rate cuts.
Stocks: Uncertainty Following the Rebound
