The financial community's C50 wind index survey shows that institutions predict an increased probability of a rate cut in the near future, with the funding rate central expected to remain stable in December.
① The median forecast for new RMB loans in November is 0.64 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 0.45 trillion yuan; ② The median forecast for new social financing scale in November is 2.58 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 0.13 trillion yuan; ③ The market anticipates that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in November may stop declining and rise, with a minor narrowing of the PPI decline due to the low base effect; ④ The probability of a timely rate cut has increased recently, and there is still a necessity for interest rate cuts.
OECD: Global economic growth rate will slightly increase next year, but high tariffs and budget deficits pose risks.
OECD released the latest "Economic Outlook" on Wednesday, forecasting a 3.2% global economic growth this year, and expected growth of 3.3% in 2025 and 2026. The organization also warned that if tariffs rise and governments fail to reduce large budget deficits, global economic growth rates may slow down.
World Economy to Accelerate in 2025, But Recovery Threatened by Higher Tariffs, OECD Says
China's Caixin Services PMI Drops to 51.5 to in November Vs. 52.5 Expected
The Nasdaq index reached a new high, French stocks rose, the south korea etf narrowed after a 7% drop, and the offshore yuan briefly fell below 7.31 yuan.
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol abruptly declared a state of emergency, boosting safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds, Japanese yen, and gold, while cryptos on the South Korean exchange plunged. The South Korean parliament quickly passed a resolution to lift the state of emergency, with the Ministry of Finance and the central bank actively working on market rescue measures. After a 2.7% drop to a two-year low, the won’s decline was cut in half, South Korean etfs fell by 1.6%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds turned to increase after hitting a new low in over a month. France is set to vote on dissolving the government as early as Wednesday, with French stocks following European markets upward, although they had previously declined during the day. The Dow Jones, small cap stocks, and semiconductor indices fell, while the China concept index once rose by 1.9%. The yuan hit a new low in a year during the day, and U.S. oil rose nearly 3% testing the $70 mark.
China's Central Bank Chief Signals Support for Economy in 2025
