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Expectations are full! Just next week, the ECB will take the lead in starting a cycle of interest rate cuts
The ECB's interest rate cut in June was fixed, but Deutsche Bank believes that the ECB is still plagued by high inflation, weak growth, upward pressure on wages, and exchange rate fluctuations. It is expected that it will not cut interest rates month by month but only once every quarter.
Eurozone CPI rebounds to 2.6% year on year in May as ECB considers cutting interest rates next week
Expectations of interest rate cuts declined further after the data was released. The Eurozone money market now prices that the ECB will cut interest rates by less than 55 basis points in 2024, while before the inflation data was released, it was about 57 basis points.
If the Reserve Bank of Australia raises interest rates in June, the Australian dollar is expected to rise to 0.69!
Market analyst Gary Howes wrote that if the Reserve Bank of Australia announces an interest rate hike at its next meeting on June 18, or strongly suggests a rate hike in the third quarter, this may push the Australian dollar to 0.69 against the US dollar, which is a high in June 2023.
Be wary of rising inflation! Expectations that the ECB will cut interest rates again after cutting interest rates in June may be lowered
Nearly three-quarters of respondents said that the Eurozone has its own inflation dynamics and is not just lagging behind the US. However, only 6% think the ECB can completely break away from the Federal Reserve in setting interest rates.
ECB Seen Making Fewer Rate Cuts in Fight to Curb Inflation Risks
Economists are dialing back their expectations for how far the European Central Bank will lower interest rates after it starts cutting next week, according to a Bloomberg survey.
Eurozone May Grow Slowly as Confidence Creaks Higher -- Market Talk
A weak rise in confidence among eurozone consumers and business points to anemic growth in the bloc, Lily Millard at Capital Economics writes in a note.