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EUR/AUD News
ECB Executive Board member Kazaks: If inflation data is good, will support the market's expectation of ECB interest rate cuts.
On Friday, Martin Kazaks, a member of the European Central Bank's committee, stated that if inflation continues to slow down as expected, the ECB may continue to lower interest rates in line with market expectations.
Ifo predicts: The European Cup may drive Germany's Q2 economic growth by 0.1%.
According to data from the Ifo Institute, the month-long European football championship that opened in Germany on Friday is expected to boost the German economy by 0.1% in the second quarter. In a report, Ifo researcher Gerome Wolf said: 'However, this impact will only be temporary, which means that due to the return of tourists after the end of the 2024 European Cup, German service exports may decline again in the third quarter, overall unchanged.' Ifo said that large-scale sports events usually have 'relatively small effects, except for the tourism industry,' and compared it to the 2 held in Germany.
Economists predict that the Reserve Bank of Australia will maintain the current interest rate until September and cut it for the first time in the fourth quarter.
According to a survey of economists, due to continued price pressures, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive time at next Tuesday's interest rate meeting.
Australia's Economy Operating Close to Capacity Despite Growth Slowdown -- Market Talk
Australia's economy is operating close to or beyond its capacity despite the growth slowdown, says Paul Bloxham, HSBC chief economist for Australia and New Zealand.
Australian Dollar Rebounds as Economists Predict the RBA to Maintain Rates in June
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has recovered from Friday's losses, possibly driven by improved risk appetite.
RBA to Keep All Policy Options on the Table -- Market Talk
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to remain vigilant when its board meets next week and publicly reveal once again that it discussed tightening policy settings.
ECB's Vasle: Possible for More Rate Cuts If Baseline Scenario Holds
The European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Bostjan Vasle said on Thursday, it is “possible for more rate cuts if baseline scenario holds.”
The baseline scenario of ECB Governing Council member Vasle points to further interest rate cuts within this year in Europe.
Bostjan Vasle, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, said there is a possibility of further interest rate cuts if the bank's expectations of a further slowdown in inflation become a reality. "If the baseline scenario becomes a reality and the data is ideal, then we may expect interest rates to continue to be cut over the next two years," said Vasle, who is also the governor of the Central Bank of Slovenia, in an interview with Finance. "Otherwise, it is wise to take further action at a later time." Last week, the European Central Bank lowered borrowing costs by 25 basis points but also raised its inflation forecast for 2024 and 2025. This decision has caused investors...
Higher Risk of RBA Rate Hike in 2H Than a Cut -- Market Talk
Australia's employment data released earlier today is unlikely to shift the dial for the Reserve Bank of Australia, says Paul Bloxham, chief economist for Australia at HSBC, in a note.
Australia's Unemployment Rate May Hit 4.4% by End 2024 -- Market Talk
Australia's labor market cooling is happening in an interesting way, with employers tempering hiring plans and trimming the hours they offer employees rather than increasing layoffs or redundancies, Harry Murphy Cruise, economist at Moody's Analytics, says in a note.
Australia's Unemployment Rate Drops to 4% as Hiring Persists
Australian unemployment dipped last month and job gains exceeded estimates, highlighting the resilience of the country’s labor market to elevated interest rates and high immigration.
European Central Bank Committee: Core inflation in the euro zone is still very challenging.
European Central Bank Executive Board member Nowotny stated that the potential consumer price index growth in the Eurozone is proving to be stubborn.
Australian Unemployment Rate Seen Edging Lower in May
Australia is set to release the May employment report on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is expected to announce the country added 27.5K new job positions in the month, down from the 38.5K gained in April.
European Central Bank official Nagel said that the core inflation in the eurozone "remains sticky".
Joachim Nagel, a member of the European Central Bank, said that it is a fact that the basic inflation in the euro area is stubborn. The German central bank president reiterated at the Americas International Economic Forum that he and his colleagues will not simply automatically lower borrowing costs, but will determine the situation at every meeting. "Core inflation is indeed still sticky," Nagel said in Montreal, Canada, on Wednesday, acknowledging that easing monetary policy last week was right. "Our road is bumpy, but we all know that the last mile is the most complex." The European Central Bank cut interest rates last week as expected, but also raised its outlook for 2024.
The European Central Bank said that the euro's share in global foreign exchange reserves dropped due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war.
According to a report by the European Central Bank, the share of the euro in the global official currency holdings fell to its lowest level since 2017 last year. In the past year, the euro-denominated assets held by countries decreased by about 1 percentage point, pushing the euro's share in forex reserves to 20% at the end of the fourth quarter. It was 21% in 2022 and 19.2% in 2017. The European Central Bank stated that potential reasons for the decline in the popularity of the euro mentioned in the report include the Russia-Ukraine war and the Swiss National Bank's currency intervention. The report pointed out that about 40% of Russia's forex reserves are in euros. As of the end of last year, the total amount of assets held by the European Central Bank was about 4.9 trillion euros.
China Post Securities: ECB cut interest rates, raising inflation expectations for 2024 and 2025 higher than expected, without making any commitment to future rate paths.
ECB President Lagarde said that the decision to cut interest rates was supported by historical data, while the upward adjustment of inflation expectations was a judgement on the future, and the two were not contradictory.
Euro Under Pressure as Macron Calls Snap Election
The euro is down for a third straight day and has dropped 1.3% since Thursday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0731 in the European session, down 0.32% on the day. There are no releases out of the US or the eurozone today.
ECB's Lane: We Will Be Agile on Interest Rates
European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Phillip Lane said on Tuesday that they will be agile on interest rates, per Reuters.
Monetary Desynchronization Between the ECB and the Federal Reserve and the Euro
As expected, the ECB has lowered its policy rate, despite the upward revision of the staff inflation forecast. In the US, the very strong labour market report for the month of May will probably make the Fed even more cautious in deciding on a first rate cut.
Villeroy and the "cautious faction" disagree: The European Central Bank should gradually cut interest rates.
On Tuesday, Villeroy said that after the European Central Bank "resolutely" began easing policies last week, it should not be hasty or delay future interest rate cuts.