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Non-farm payrolls lead to a cooling of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, with some institutions stating that there is no need to be too pessimistic.
After the release of May non-farm payroll data, futures traders have reduced expectations of a Fed rate cut. Blackrock said that investors should not be too pessimistic and believe that the FOMC can still start cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting, hoping for one more rate cut this year. Citigroup currently expects the Fed to take no action before September, but will continue to cut rates thereafter.
Bank of Canada cuts rates ahead of time, analyst says interest rate spread may lead to depreciation of the Canadian dollar.
This week, the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points, but people began to question how much the gap between the key interest rates of the two countries would widen as it is expected that the Federal Reserve will hold the overnight interest rate steady until autumn.
Where will oil prices go with OPEC+ production cuts and expectations of a Fed interest rate cut?
This week, the crude oil product market experienced another round of fluctuations under the dual influence of OPEC+'s production guarantee and US employment data. In Friday's (June 7th) trade, both WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices fell slightly, marking the third consecutive week of declining oil prices.
Unraveling the mystery of the sharp increase in US non-farm employment in May and the rebound in unemployment rate.
The discrepancy between non-farm data and unemployment rate is due to the difference in survey methods. The actual unemployment rate of 3.96% is not significantly different from the expected 3.9%.
"New Fed Communications Agency" explains in detail: Why hasn't the US economy declined yet?
Well-known financial journalist Nick Timiraos, also known as the "new Fed communication agency," wrote in his latest article on Friday that to date, the unanimous expectation of corporate executives, economists, and investors that the US economy would decline has not materialized. Of course, although those who predicted a recession in the US economy were wrong before, it does not mean that they will not eventually be correct. Timiraos believes that the recession in the US economy caused by the COVID-19 pandemic four years ago was fundamentally unusual, and that the subsequent introduction of radical policy measures was the fundamental reason for the remarkable resilience of the US economy to date. Prospects for the Fed.
The non-farm 'real hammer' has shut the door to the 'interest rate cut club' of the Federal Reserve, and the US dollar is rising sharply!
Due to the strong performance of the US economy, any hopes of a recent policy adjustment by the Federal Reserve have been shattered and Bloomberg's USD index is expected to create the longest weekly uptrend since February. After the release of non-farm employment data on Friday (June 7th), the benchmark index rose by nearly 0.8%, reaching the highest level in more than a month. The possibility of a Fed rate cut was lowered because the swap market currently expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points for the first time in December.