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Express News | Oil Is Trading Higher Despite a Drop in US GDP. On Wednesday, EIA Reported a Draw in US Crude Inventories
BenzingaApr 25 15:32 ET
Oil Prices Give up Losses to Settle at a More Than 1-week High
Oil futures shook off early losses Thursday to finish higher, with both U.S. and global benchmark prices settling at their highest in more than a week.
MarketWatchApr 25 15:19 ET
Express News | API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 3.230M Barrel Draw Vs 1.8M Barrel Build Est
Moomoo 24/7Apr 23 16:41 ET
Express News | Oil Is Trading Higher, Possibly Amid Middle East Uncertainty. The Pentagon Called on Iraq's Government to Take All Necessary Steps to Defend US Forces. US Weekly Crude Stock Data Will Also Be Released After the Close Today
Moomoo 24/7Apr 23 15:43 ET
Oil's Latest Losing Streak Isn't Just About Israel -- Barrons.com
Oil prices fell on Monday, continuing a skid that took prices down 3.5% last week and has left the commodity in the red five out of the past six days.
Barron'sApr 23 03:08 ET
Express News | Oil Is Trading Lower as Concerns Over Middle East Tensions Ease
Moomoo 24/7Apr 22 10:50 ET
BelleWeather :
I think proper portfolio positioning vis a vis inflation is important. The concern I have is stagflation, so I’m trying to be defensive to that. This is difficult. And timing the market is impossible and crazy-making, so I personally am taking each day as it comes.
I don’t think anyone is going to sell off over these concerns, and Powell is not about to fan those flames either!
SpyderCallOP BelleWeather: They might not sell over these concerns. But when these variables are present, then any negative catalyst will likely catalyze a selloff. For example, if we get bad rhetoric from Powell next week, then we might see extra volatility. That being said, in the current environment, any selloff will be a good buying opportunity until something breaks in the economy.
SpyderCallOP BelleWeather: So far, wages and employment numbers have held up, so stagflation is not a concern until inflation picks back up. With the way oil and gasoline prices have been climbing, we could possibly see a stagflationary environment soon, but not yet. Things are almost perfect in the economic data currently. We are in a goldilocks zone for the Fed right now. And if things get worse, then the Fed has already mentioned cutting rates. That would be even more accomodative for equities as the "Fed Put" will be in play at that point. So, if we do see stagflation, it shouldn't last long as the Fed will accommodate markets when the inflation, wages, or employment situation changes negatively.
BelleWeather : Agreed on the Goldilocks zone vis a vis the Fed mandate save one issue - the reserve bank balance is almost out - won’t they have to move to correct that?
SpyderCallOP BelleWeather:
They have been greatly decreasing the balance sheet since march 2022. This is done through selling treasury bonds or mortgage securities. Short-term treasuries, like bills, have been the biggest culprits for the runoff of the balance sheet. This has been unwinding the massive amount of asset purchases since the 2008 financial crisis.
They purchased all of these assets back then as a form of quantative easing to boost the economy. Right now, they are selling treasury notes at sky-high yields to provide liquidity to banks essentially. This is putting more liabilities onto the balance sheet, which brings the balance down.
I don't think the balance sheet runoff is such a big deal at the moment.
Once the economy is showing signs of trouble, then I think we will need to worry about the Fed balance sheet. If they start buying assets, essentially quantative easing, then they might think that there is weakness in the economy.
You might think that with the Fed balance falling like it is, then long-term treasuries should be falling along with the balance. But that has not been the case since last November as these treasuries have been climbing.
This tells me that the balance sheet is now falling because the Fed is adding liquidity through short-term bond sales, which inject liquidity into the economy, which is good for an economy and equities.
bwjx : when did the plus 30 rally happen?
SpyderCallOP bwjx:
The rally started on the first of Janurary this year after I posted comments about nat gas having a gap up. The rally ended after I made this post. There was even a massive gap down the other day. I don't know why it gapped down so much, but it was an ugly gap.
I was waiting on oil to get the next rally, but so far, the crude is staying relatively range bound right now.
DadOnARun : it's nothing until it's something. until it's something this is just hype. 3 tours into the M East, chasing and securing the red sea is a monthly event. just view a map that shows allies vs enemies. it's a mess
SpyderCallOP DadOnARun: Heard. Sometimes, it seems like the media just needs something to blame for the spiking energy prices or rallying military industrial stocks
小鸟凸人 : 涨不了,看空
The Comeback Kid : Demand is not too bad, I would think some names like XOM and CVX have values
SpyderCallOP 小鸟凸人: Data on oil inventories released earlier. It is bringing down crude prices. But nat gas is holding up nicely after the Nat gas storage data was released.
Ray P : don't look now
SpyderCallOP Ray P: you talking about Nat gas? or crude?
Ben Buttons : 1950s porn ...lol
Stock_DriftOP Ben Buttons: That picture is 1960’s
Ben Buttons Stock_DriftOP: oh excuse me ,black and white threw me off a bit...lol