The agency said the performance of Internet companies is expected to pick up in 2022.
The Hong Kong stock market has significantly outperformed A shares and US stocks since the beginning of the year. Take the Hang Seng Index as an example, the Hang Seng Index rose 6.45% as of February 14, 2022. Over the same period, the CSI 300 index fell 6.86%, and the s & p 500 index fell 7.29%. In Hong Kong stocks, the financial, real estate, and high dividend assets related to steady growth are relatively outstanding.
Looking back, can Hong Kong stocks still be laid out? Which plates are worth paying attention to? In this regard,Bosera Fund Index and Quantitative Investment Department ETF Group Deputy Director and Fund Manager Wan Qiong issued the latest point of view.
The following is the full text of the question and answer:
Q：After falling continuously last year, the Hong Kong stock market showed up at the beginning of the year. What? Characteristics? What factors brought about the rebound of the Hong Kong stock market at the beginning of the year.
Wan Qiong: the Hong Kong stock market has significantly outperformed A shares and US stocks since the beginning of the year. Take the Hang Seng Index as an example, as of February 14, 2022, the Hang Seng Index has risen 6.45%. Over the same period, the CSI 300 index fell 6.86%, and the s & p 500 index fell 7.29%. In Hong Kong stocks, the financial, real estate, and high dividend assets related to steady growth are relatively outstanding.
On the one hand, China's stable growth policy has changed the market's pessimistic expectations of the traditional economy, on the other hand, the valuations of Hong Kong's equity assets are more attractive than other markets. Take the Hang Seng High dividend Index as an example. At the beginning of the year, the price-to-earnings ratio of the index was at its lowest level in nearly a decade, and the dividend yield of the index exceeded 7% at the beginning of the year.
Q：From the perspectives of macro-economy, monetary liquidity, market sentiment, fundamentals, etc.HowAnalyze the trend of the Hong Kong stock market in 2022?
Wan Qiong: from a macro-economic point of view, the domestic economy is expected to remain stable. Although it faces pressures such as declining real estate, epidemic disturbance, and falling exports in the short term, China's economy will remain stable throughout the year with the gradual implementation of stable growth policies. In terms of liquidity, Hong Kong stocks face the dual role of China's easing and Fed interest rate hikes. Although the proportion of southward funds in Hong Kong stocks has increased significantly in recent years, on the whole, the Hong Kong market is still greatly affected by overseas liquidity. Therefore, 2022 Hong Kong stocks liquidity is in a neutral state of not optimistic and not pessimistic.
The fundamentals can be divided into three aspects: on the one hand, the cyclical plate related to steady growth, represented by financial and real estate, on the other hand, the new economic plate represented by technology leading companies, and the last piece are Hong Kong's leading enterprises.
As for the sectors related to stable growth, we are not pessimistic. We believe in the determination and ability of the government. With the development of policies, the traditional economy related to stable growth can remain stable. At the same time, as Europe and the United States and other countries gradually recover from the epidemic, China is still facing the impact of the disturbance of the epidemic, which will also have a certain impact on the export-related sectors.
The policy pressure faced by the new economy companies represented by the Internet is gradually digested, and the fundamentals as a whole are in a state of marginal improvement. It is expected that with the continuous landing of regulatory policies and cases and the end of the business adjustment of Internet companies, the performance of Internet companies is expected to pick up in 2022. In the long run, the Internet industry still has a high-efficiency advantage over traditional industries, and the existing business is expected to maintain steady growth. The last piece is the Hong Kong local sector, and the performance of these companies depends largely on when Hong Kong fully recovers from the epidemic.
Generally speaking, the overall fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks in 2022 have challenges but also opportunities. Combining macroeconomic, fundamentals, and liquidity, it is expected that the Hong Kong stock market will have a valuation repair market in 2022, and the Hong Kong stock market will be dominated by structural markets throughout the year.
Q：The Hong Kong stock market is usually affected by the domestic market and the American market. Which factors need to be paid attention to may cause certain fluctuations to the Hong Kong stock market？
Wan Qiong: First of all, we need to pay attention to the impact of the Fed interest rate hike. The current inflation in the United States is high. If the Fed raises interest rates faster than expected, it will have a greater impact on global liquidity. From historical data, Hong Kong stocks will also face a greater impact. Another need to pay close attention to the impact and impact of the clearance of the domestic real estate industry, although on the whole, we think that the risk of real estate developers is controllable, but do not rule out the periodic impact on the economy and market sentiment.
Q：Which industries are optimistic about investment opportunities?
Wan Qiong: on the one hand, we are optimistic about the opportunity to repair the valuation of high dividend assets. There is a high correlation between high dividend assets and stable growth policies, and the fundamentals are very resilient. On the other hand, the current valuation of high-dividend assets is historically low and the dividend return is high. On the other hand, it is optimistic that there has been a sharp decline in industries that have been suppressed by policies, but still have prospects for development in the long run, such as the Internet, health care, and so on.
First, after a sharp fall in the previous period, the current valuations of these assets are relatively low in history. At the same time, in the long run, there is still a lot of room for demand growth in these industries. The early decline is mainly caused by policy, as the previous policy has been relatively strict, the current point of view, there will be no stricter restrictions on the introduction of policies, therefore, when the current market mood is pessimistic, it is precisely a good time to layout such high-quality assets.
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