Debon Securities: 24Q1 coal industry fund holdings increased slightly month-on-month, low allocations expanded month-on-month
In Q1 2024, the coal industry had excellent market performance, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by a large margin. It had both excess and absolute returns, and ranked third in the growth rate of Shenwan's Tier 1 industry.
Debon Securities: Coal supply declined in March, focus on the pace of subsequent economic recovery
Steady economic recovery and large-scale equipment upgrades are expected to support coal demand.
China to Establish Coal Capacity Reserve System by 2027
China vowed to set up a coal capacity reserve system by 2027, aiming to secure energy security through more flexible coal supplies, according to plans the country released Friday.
Guotai Junan: Coking coal prices may reach the bottom zone in 24 years, and there is a possibility of a “V” reversal
After experiencing 7 rounds of price cuts, the profits of independent coking companies across the country according to MySteel have dropped to -155 yuan/ton. Many companies have been forced to limit production by smoldering, and the resistance to continued steel price cuts is strong. It is expected that coke prices will basically reach the bottom.
华泰证券:煤炭供应或仍保持一定韧性 淡季需求将考验煤价支撑
在淡季需求的环境下,当前已处于高位的库存或进一步面临去库压力,整体供需趋宽松,煤价支撑偏薄弱。
Debon Securities: “Gold, Three, Silver, Four” peak season is approaching and coal prices are fluctuating
Debon Securities released a research report saying that safety production in coal mines has now become a national priority. Safety inspections are expected to remain at high pressure, capacity utilization is constrained, and supply contraction expectations are strengthened.
Cathay Pacific Junan: The reshaping of coal valuations for “stable high-dividend” assets may have just begun
Safety regulations are getting stricter, and coal supply is shrinking or exceeding expectations
Huatai Securities: Production in Shanxi may be difficult to increase in 2024 to support coking coal prices
As the main producer of coking coal in the country, Shanxi has had a big impact on coking coal supply. The bank is optimistic about coking coal prices this year.
Guoxin Securities: The boom in the coal industry is expected to continue under the support of supply-side structural reforms and the long-term bargaining system
Guoxin Securities released a research report stating that coal is China's basic energy product. Under policy regulation, safe supply and flexible supply are achieved, coal for people's livelihood is guaranteed through the long-term cooperation price mechanism, and price fluctuations are calmed down. Supported by supply-side structural reforms and a long-term bargaining system, the boom in the coal industry is expected to continue. The price of coal is stable. Major coal companies operate steadily, their dividends have increased, their investment value is prominent, and they maintain the industry's “overrated” rating.
Guojin Securities: The high dividend market of coal continues to be “deterministic” to drive sector valuation reshaping
Guojin Securities released a research report saying that the 2021-10M24 coal sector index is strongly correlated with coal prices, and several rounds of the market essentially stem from performance growth expectations brought about by rising coal prices.
Debon Securities Coal Industry Fund Position Analysis: Increased allocation but still low dividend advantage highlights that there is still room to increase holdings
Debon Securities released a research report saying that according to Wind data, the coal industry allocation ratio continued to rise in the fourth quarter of 2023. After excluding Hong Kong stocks, coal stocks accounted for 1.21% of the market value of heavy public fund holdings, an increase of 0.3 pct over the previous month, but the allocation was still 0.75 pct lower.
Changes in Hong Kong stocks | Coal stocks continue to rise, coal energy (01898) rose more than 9%, China Shenhua (01088) rose more than 4%
Coal stocks continued to rise. As of press release, China Coal Energy (01898) rose 8.84% to HK$8.37; Mongolian coking coal (00975) rose 8.06% to HK$8.65; and South Gobi (01878) rose 7.88% to HK$4.52.
Changes in Hong Kong stocks | Some coal stocks strengthened, and South Gobi (01878) once rose more than 15%, coal prices are still supported during peak season
Some coal stocks strengthened. As of press release, South Gobi (01878) rose 13.42% to HK$4.14; Yancoal Australia (03668) rose 6.53% to HK$28.55; and South-South Resources (01229) rose 5.76% to HK$0.147.
Huatai Securities: The coal market may run smoothly before supply and demand weaken
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huatai Securities released a research report saying that as the Spring Festival approaches, some coal mine holidays may drive supply tightening in production areas, but industrial production intensity will also gradually weaken, and power plant inventories are high and there is no need for strong storage. The bank expects the coal market to operate smoothly before the holiday season due to weak supply and demand.
Open Source Securities: China's resumption of import tariffs on coal imports weakens the price advantage of imported coal or reduces the amount of imported coal
If domestic and foreign coal price differences gradually subside in 2024, the price advantage of imported coal weakens, it will lead to expectations that China's imported coal will decrease.
Coal stocks rose collectively, Mongolian Energy (00276) rose 7.23%, institutions say coal companies' value is undervalued
Jinwu Financial News | Coal stocks rose collectively. Mongolia Energy (00276) rose 7.23%, Mongolian coking coal (00975) rose 4.69%, South China Resources (01229) rose 4.03%, China Coal Energy (01898) rose 1.49%, Shougang Resources (00639) rose 1.32%, and China Shenhua (01088) rose 0.88%. The Capital Securities Research Report points out that coking coal, as a scarce variety among the major categories of coal, is an indispensable and important resource for the steel industry. Domestic high-quality coking coal resources are expected to continue to benefit from future resource shortages, and the medium- to long-term value center is expected to rise steadily
Coal stocks rose collectively, Mongolian Energy (00276) rose 4.41%. Institutions say coal companies have abundant cash flow and the profitability of the industry is relatively good
Jinwu Financial News | Coal stocks rose collectively. Mongolia Energy (00276) rose 4.41%, South Gobi (01878) rose 4.12%, Jinma Energy (06885) rose 3.2%, Mongolian coking coal (00975) rose 2.75%, South-South resources (01229) rose 2.67%, Yankuang Energy (01171) rose 1.67%, China Coal Energy (01898) rose 1.65%, and China Shenhua (01088) rose 1.26%. Hualong Securities said that the coal industry has obvious characteristics of high dividends. After supply-side reforms, the operating conditions of the coal industry were greatly improved, and coal companies
Cathay Pacific Junan: The bottom of coal prices confirms high dividends to help reshape sector valuations
Guotai Junan released a research report saying that the bottom of coal prices confirmed that the profits of coal companies are guaranteed, and that the value of high dividends and high dividend allocation from listed coal companies is highlighted, helping to reshape the valuation of the coal sector.
Changes in Hong Kong stocks | Coal stocks generally fell back in South Gobi (01878), and the spot price of coking coal fell by nearly 7% in the intraday period, and the spot price of coking coal recovered
Coal stocks generally declined. As of press release, South Gobi (01878) fell 4.76% to HK$3.8; Mongolian Energy (00276) fell 4.29% to HK$0.67; and South-South Resources (01229) fell 3.27% to HK$0.148.
Changes in Hong Kong stocks | Some coal stocks continue to rise, institutions say the sector's high dividend appreciation logic is expected to continue to strengthen
Some coal stocks continued their gains. As of press release, South-South Resources (01229) rose 3.79% to HK$0.137; Yankuang Energy (01171) rose 2.14% to HK$16.2; and China Shenhua (01088) rose 1.99% to HK$28.2.
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