Haitong Securities: 24Q1 performance is under pressure, coal may still fluctuate and adjust in the short term
Currently, the prices of thermal coal and coking coal have both entered the bottom fluctuation range, but the upward trend is yet to be further boosted by the demand side.
Tianfeng International: What are the future expectations of the coal price increase industry?
Regarding the recent month-on-month rise in thermal coal prices, it is mostly due to supply-side contraction. Coking companies have maintained a strategy of low inventory for a long time. Currently, coking coal stocks are at their lowest level in nearly 5 years.
Guojin Securities: The first rise in coal prices in the beginning of the year is expected to pull back slightly in May after the off-season catalyzed by port storage
After the off-season coal prices fell under pressure in March-April, coal prices in the port market are expected to bottom out in May, but the increase is limited. Judging from the 1-2 M24 coal price fluctuation experience, whether the port can successfully go to storage is an important condition for whether market coal prices can recover after the off-season.
There's Reason For Concern Over Ares Asia Limited's (HKG:645) Massive 27% Price Jump
Those holding Ares Asia Limited (HKG:645) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 27% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused
Debon Securities: 24Q1 coal industry fund holdings increased slightly month-on-month, low allocations expanded month-on-month
In Q1 2024, the coal industry had excellent market performance, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by a large margin. It had both excess and absolute returns, and ranked third in the growth rate of Shenwan's Tier 1 industry.
Debon Securities: Coal supply declined in March, focus on the pace of subsequent economic recovery
Steady economic recovery and large-scale equipment upgrades are expected to support coal demand.
China to Establish Coal Capacity Reserve System by 2027
China vowed to set up a coal capacity reserve system by 2027, aiming to secure energy security through more flexible coal supplies, according to plans the country released Friday.
Guotai Junan: Coking coal prices may reach the bottom zone in 24 years, and there is a possibility of a “V” reversal
After experiencing 7 rounds of price cuts, the profits of independent coking companies across the country according to MySteel have dropped to -155 yuan/ton. Many companies have been forced to limit production by smoldering, and the resistance to continued steel price cuts is strong. It is expected that coke prices will basically reach the bottom.
华泰证券:煤炭供应或仍保持一定韧性 淡季需求将考验煤价支撑
在淡季需求的环境下,当前已处于高位的库存或进一步面临去库压力,整体供需趋宽松,煤价支撑偏薄弱。
Debon Securities: “Gold, Three, Silver, Four” peak season is approaching and coal prices are fluctuating
Debon Securities released a research report saying that safety production in coal mines has now become a national priority. Safety inspections are expected to remain at high pressure, capacity utilization is constrained, and supply contraction expectations are strengthened.
Cathay Pacific Junan: The reshaping of coal valuations for “stable high-dividend” assets may have just begun
Safety regulations are getting stricter, and coal supply is shrinking or exceeding expectations
Huatai Securities: Production in Shanxi may be difficult to increase in 2024 to support coking coal prices
As the main producer of coking coal in the country, Shanxi has had a big impact on coking coal supply. The bank is optimistic about coking coal prices this year.
Guoxin Securities: The boom in the coal industry is expected to continue under the support of supply-side structural reforms and the long-term bargaining system
Guoxin Securities released a research report stating that coal is China's basic energy product. Under policy regulation, safe supply and flexible supply are achieved, coal for people's livelihood is guaranteed through the long-term cooperation price mechanism, and price fluctuations are calmed down. Supported by supply-side structural reforms and a long-term bargaining system, the boom in the coal industry is expected to continue. The price of coal is stable. Major coal companies operate steadily, their dividends have increased, their investment value is prominent, and they maintain the industry's “overrated” rating.
Guojin Securities: The high dividend market of coal continues to be “deterministic” to drive sector valuation reshaping
Guojin Securities released a research report saying that the 2021-10M24 coal sector index is strongly correlated with coal prices, and several rounds of the market essentially stem from performance growth expectations brought about by rising coal prices.
Debon Securities Coal Industry Fund Position Analysis: Increased allocation but still low dividend advantage highlights that there is still room to increase holdings
Debon Securities released a research report saying that according to Wind data, the coal industry allocation ratio continued to rise in the fourth quarter of 2023. After excluding Hong Kong stocks, coal stocks accounted for 1.21% of the market value of heavy public fund holdings, an increase of 0.3 pct over the previous month, but the allocation was still 0.75 pct lower.
Huatai Securities: The coal market may run smoothly before supply and demand weaken
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huatai Securities released a research report saying that as the Spring Festival approaches, some coal mine holidays may drive supply tightening in production areas, but industrial production intensity will also gradually weaken, and power plant inventories are high and there is no need for strong storage. The bank expects the coal market to operate smoothly before the holiday season due to weak supply and demand.
Open Source Securities: China's resumption of import tariffs on coal imports weakens the price advantage of imported coal or reduces the amount of imported coal
If domestic and foreign coal price differences gradually subside in 2024, the price advantage of imported coal weakens, it will lead to expectations that China's imported coal will decrease.
Cathay Pacific Junan: The bottom of coal prices confirms high dividends to help reshape sector valuations
Guotai Junan released a research report saying that the bottom of coal prices confirmed that the profits of coal companies are guaranteed, and that the value of high dividends and high dividend allocation from listed coal companies is highlighted, helping to reshape the valuation of the coal sector.
Cathay Pacific Junan: The bottom of coal prices is supported, and high dividends highlight value
High dividend values are highlighted under steady profits, and valuation increases are expected
Clean Utilization of Coal to Play Key Role in Decarbonization Process
China has been making strides in the green transition of coal energy in recent years amid the country's push toward renewables, with domestic coal companies actively promoting clean utilization of coal while stepping up integration with carbon capture, utilization and storage, experts said.
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