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SpyderCall

Apr 12 22:53

ColumnsBearish Type of Morning

$S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US)$
SpyderCall : The Charts Are Flashing Major Warning Signs!
Rough Start to the Day
A lots of negative sentiment popped up overnight. From negative geopolitical news, sour earnings reactions, trade sanction rumors, and contractionary economic data in one of the world's biggest economies. Equity markets are taking another hit this morning. Safe havens are ripping. And even though the major indices are deep in the red, defensive stocks are performing m...

Earnings season: Share your trading tales!

SpyderCall

Mar 30 03:46

ColumnsInsights Into Jerome Powell's Interview

$Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures(JUN4)(UBmain.US)$
Liquidity is What Moves Markets
Investors worldwide pay very close attention to the Fed whenever they speak. They are searching for any inkling of a clue into future policy decisions. Ultimately, they are looking for the one thing that moves markets, and that would be liquidity.
Will they decrease interest rates? Will they add assets to their balance sheet? Will the Federal Reserve pump liquidity into the ...

FOMC decided to not change rates: when will they come down?

bullrider_21

Mar 21 11:36

China economy's strong start to 2024 deals blow to "over-pessimism" but recovery hangs on property market

$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S(HST.SG)$
The Chinese economy could finally be turning the corner according to both technical and fundamental factors, and this could have major ramifications for the local economy and stock market.
We're a long way both in time and magnitude since the double-digit growth rates enjoyed by the Chinese economy between 2000 and 2010 – a period of growth that was at the ti...

SpyderCall

Mar 19 00:11

Bullish Diamond Candlestick Pattern

$PayPal(PYPL.US)$
It looks a little risky as the long-term trend is down. But I believe this is a good investment at these prices. The price action is exiting the diamond pattern in a bullish fashion.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US)$$SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average Trust(DIA.US)$$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK.US)$$iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF(EEM.US)$$MSCI Inc(MSCI.US)$$CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index(.VIX.US)$$FTSE Malaysia Index(.KLSE.MY)$$Hang Seng Index(800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index(800700.HK)$
...

SpyderCall

Mar 17 05:28

Should We Be Worried About Inflation?

All Eyes on the Upcoming Fed Meeting
With interest rates and inflation being the main concern for investors these days, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision coming this Wednesday.
Many analysts are calling for a resurgence in inflation. While the Federal Reserve has been standing by their word, saying that inflation is under control and we are on the path towards rate cuts this year.
If the Fed believes that inflation is no longer...

Powell hints at rate cuts this year: What do you think?

BelleWeather : I think proper portfolio positioning vis a vis inflation is important. The concern I have is stagflation, so I’m trying to be defensive to that. This is difficult. And timing the market is impossible and crazy-making, so I personally am taking each day as it comes.
I don’t think anyone is going to sell off over these concerns, and Powell is not about to fan those flames either!

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SpyderCallOP BelleWeather: They might not sell over these concerns. But when these variables are present, then any negative catalyst will likely catalyze a selloff. For example, if we get bad rhetoric from Powell next week, then we might see extra volatility. That being said, in the current environment, any selloff will be a good buying opportunity until something breaks in the economy.

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SpyderCallOP BelleWeather: So far, wages and employment numbers have held up, so stagflation is not a concern until inflation picks back up. With the way oil and gasoline prices have been climbing, we could possibly see a stagflationary environment soon, but not yet. Things are almost perfect in the economic data currently. We are in a goldilocks zone for the Fed right now. And if things get worse, then the Fed has already mentioned cutting rates. That would be even more accomodative for equities as the "Fed Put" will be in play at that point. So, if we do see stagflation, it shouldn't last long as the Fed will accommodate markets when the inflation, wages, or employment situation changes negatively.

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BelleWeather : Agreed on the Goldilocks zone vis a vis the Fed mandate save one issue - the reserve bank balance is almost out - won’t they have to move to correct that?

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SpyderCallOP BelleWeather: They have been greatly decreasing the balance sheet since march 2022. This is done through selling treasury bonds or mortgage securities. Short-term treasuries, like bills, have been the biggest culprits for the runoff of the balance sheet. This has been unwinding the massive amount of asset purchases since the 2008 financial crisis.
They purchased all of these assets back then as a form of quantative easing to boost the economy. Right now, they are selling treasury notes at sky-high yields to provide liquidity to banks essentially. This is putting more liabilities onto the balance sheet, which brings the balance down.
I don't think the balance sheet runoff is such a big deal at the moment.
Once the economy is showing signs of trouble, then I think we will need to worry about the Fed balance sheet. If they start buying assets, essentially quantative easing, then they might think that there is weakness in the economy.
You might think that with the Fed balance falling like it is, then long-term treasuries should be falling along with the balance. But that has not been the case since last November as these treasuries have been climbing.
This tells me that the balance sheet is now falling because the Fed is adding liquidity through short-term bond sales, which inject liquidity into the economy, which is good for an economy and equities.

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bullrider_21

Mar 8 21:23

Technical analysis for Hang Seng Index

$Hang Seng Index(800000.HK)$
Technical analysis for Hang Seng Index.
From the weekly chart, the Hang Seng Index rebounded at 14597.31 in Oct 2022 which is near the Jun 1999 high. It rose to the downtrend line and fell to the uptrend line which provided support. It is quite close to the apex of the triangle formed by the downtrend and uptrend lines. The index may break out in a few months time.
From the daily chart, you can see that the index is trading in a ...

bullrider_21

Feb 13 21:13

Treating China as 'un-investable' would be 'wide off the mark,' JPMorgan strategist says

$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S(HST.SG)$
Even as China's economy is facing difficulties, treating it as un-investable like some analysts have suggested would not be the right call, John Bilton, head of global multi-asset strategy at JPMorgan Asset Management, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe."
"I don't think you can treat the world's second-largest economy as either an alternative investment or un-investable, that wou...

SpyderCall

Feb 11 13:52

When Will the Trouble in Chinese Markets End?

No Rebound for the Hang Seng, Yet
$Hang Seng Index(800000.HK)$
The Hang Seng Index is still in a technical downtrend. It is not showing any signs of recovering yet. After the chinese government pledged to aid equity markets, most of the chinese equity markets began to rally. Economic data has still been showing signs of contraction. This put a stop to the supposed rally in the Hand Seng.
Tech Might Be Showing More Promise
$Hang Seng TECH Index(800700.HK)$
...

bullrider_21

Feb 8 10:07

$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S(HST.SG)$
Still above MA20. Bullish sign.
China replaced the head of its securities regulator, a surprise move that may foreshadow more forceful measures by Xi Jinping's government to end the rout in the country's US$8 trillion ($10.75 trillion) stock market.
Wu Qing, a banking and regulation veteran who earned the reputation as "the broker butcher" when he led a crackdown on traders in the mid-2000s, is replacing Yi Huiman as chairman and party chief of the China Securi...

Spinee

Feb 7 17:42

The total transaction volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks reached 1 trillion on Wednesday, for the first time in 2024.

$SSE Composite Index(800146.HK)$ closed up 1.44% to 2,829.69
$Shenzhen Component Index(399001.SZ)$ +2.93% to 8,708.24
$CSI 300 Index(000300.SH)$ +0.96% to 3,343.63
CSI 500 +6.3%
CSI 1000 +4.5%
CSI 2000 -2.8%
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