Fed's Bullard: Wall Street Overbetting on Recession Odds

Show Transcript
May 22, 2023 10:41 · 61.9k Views

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard says he expects "relatively slow growth" for the rest of this year and going into 2024 during a moderated discussion at an event in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more

Transcript

  • 00:00 Do you think we're in a recession going into a recession by year end give us give us your thoughts overall on that front.
  • 00:08 Ah I that's not my base case my base case is that will have a relatively slow growth for the us economy for the rest of this year and going into twenty twenty four um I think recession probabilities are overstated uh for the us s economy uh there's always a some risk of recession so maybe it will happen but I don't think it's as high probability is where wall street is today I also think that the.
  • 00:38 First half of this year and the second half of last year came in stronger than expected and now you're looking at a second quarter of growth rate the current quarter growth rate of two point nine percent at an annual rate according to the Atlanta feds GDP now so if you got a number like that a kind of three percent number in the second quarter and put that together with the one percent just a little bit over one percent growth and.
  • 01:08 The first quarter you'd be talking about two percent growth through the u s economy that's about the trend growth rate so I think it's better to think of an economy that's growing at trend or a little bit below trend and ah yes there maybe you could get a recession but that would have To Be caused by a shock that we can't predict at this point and so um I think I think wall streets over betting some on the on the recession scenario.