Oil Analyst Sen Sees Brent at $100 by Halloween

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Bloomberg Sep 18, 2023 10:44 · 7093 Views

Amrita Sen, co-founder and head of research at Energy Aspects, lays out the factors that can lead to “a temporary upswing in crude,” pushing Brent to $100 by Halloween. She speaks on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

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Transcript

  • 00:00 What's the Amarillo send timeline of an oil vector I guess in June or July of 70 something
  • 00:06 up to 9451 right now, is that just a continued vector up, do you see 959697
  • 00:14 etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.
  • 00:17 Yeah, if you remember Tom, our price forecast for Q4 was an average of $92 for Brent.
  • 00:22 So I think we've
  • 00:23 we've kind of hit it now.
  • 00:25 So the question is, but look an average of 92 does allow oil prices to go to 100.
  • 00:29 We're going to, we're putting out a piece later today which is
  • 00:32 calling for $100 by Halloween
  • 00:34 for bread.
  • 00:36 And again you know this is, this is just a trajectory and at this point of course it's a short term thing, right.
  • 00:41 I'm not saying it's going to average above 100,
  • 00:43 but could it go to $100 for a big?
  • 00:45 It absolutely yes.
  • 00:47 The triple digit
  • 00:48 by Halloween is I'm ready to.
  • 00:50 Is that just a marketing mechanism,
  • 00:51 just you know, triple digits Halloween or something about the next one, it just,
  • 00:55 it just rhymes, right, hundred by Halloween.
  • 00:57 That's why.
  • 00:57 No, I'm joking,
  • 00:58 but it's just
  • 01:00 no, I think look
  • 01:01 fundamentals are very, very strong right now, but also positioning and that's one thing we shouldn't miss a lot of hedge funds are very under positioned and crude because of the macro concerns.
  • 01:11 Now we are seeing quite a bit of passive money come back as well.
  • 01:15 So I think the combination of that could actually lead to a temporary kind of upswing in crude and that's why I'm not saying we're still we're not expecting it to average above 100, but it could go above 100 and then in the next couple of weeks.