According to the US Voucher report, due to the decline in export demand in 2023 due to the impact of the epidemic and the US economic crisis, the profit forecast of the logistics and port industry from 2022 to 2023 will be reduced by an average of 4% to 5%, and the target will be correspondingly reduced by 5% to 13%.
As the container throughput is expected to be sluggish in 2023, the bank lowered the investment rating of China Merchants Port (00144.HK) from "import" to "neutral". It is predicted that the container throughput of Shenzhen and Shanghai ports of China Merchants Bureau will show a low unit decline from 2022 to 2023, offsetting part of the revenue from the recovery and growth of domestic ports this year, the target price will be lowered from 17 yuan to 15 yuan.
As for the express industry, the bank still expects that the inland city closure policy will be released in mid-May, so that the profit margin and valuation are expected to gradually recover, among which the bank is optimistic about the profit performance of 002352.SZ and ZTO Express-SW (02057.HK) (ZTO.US). At the same time, it is optimistic that Kerry Logistics (00636.HK) has a small exposure to inland operations, which will be reduced from 25 yuan to 23 yuan.
Dragged down by the epidemic, Metro pointed out that the logistics volume of the express company is expected to drop by 30% in recent months, and the profit margin of the express industry this year is expected to be reduced by 7% to 11%.$JD Logistics, Inc. (02618.HK) $The annual budget will be increased to 692 million yuan, and the target will be lowered from 30 yuan to 26 yuan.