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We Think China Starch Holdings' (HKG:3838) Profit Is Only A Baseline For What They Can Achieve

Simply Wall St ·  Apr 20, 2022 20:30

China Starch Holdings Limited (HKG:3838) recently posted some strong earnings, and the market responded positively. We did some digging and found some further encouraging factors that investors will like.

See our latest analysis for China Starch Holdings

SEHK:3838 Earnings and Revenue History April 21st 2022

Examining Cashflow Against China Starch Holdings' Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

Over the twelve months to December 2021, China Starch Holdings recorded an accrual ratio of -0.13. Therefore, its statutory earnings were quite a lot less than its free cashflow. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of CN¥712m, well over the CN¥345.6m it reported in profit. Given that China Starch Holdings had negative free cash flow in the prior corresponding period, the trailing twelve month resul of CN¥712m would seem to be a step in the right direction. Having said that, there is more to the story. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of China Starch Holdings.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

Surprisingly, given China Starch Holdings' accrual ratio implied strong cash conversion, its paper profit was actually boosted by CN¥34m in unusual items. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. Assuming those unusual items don't show up again in the current year, we'd thus expect profit to be weaker next year (in the absence of business growth, that is).

Our Take On China Starch Holdings' Profit Performance

China Starch Holdings' profits got a boost from unusual items, which indicates they might not be sustained and yet its accrual ratio still indicated solid cash conversion, which is promising. Considering the aforementioned, we think that China Starch Holdings' profits are probably a reasonable reflection of its underlying profitability; although we'd be confident in that conclusion if we saw a cleaner set of results. If you'd like to know more about China Starch Holdings as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with China Starch Holdings (including 1 which is significant).

Our examination of China Starch Holdings has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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