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The one-year underlying earnings growth at Hope Education Group (HKG:1765) is promising, but the shareholders are still in the red over that time

Simply Wall St ·  Apr 19, 2022 19:18

The art and science of stock market investing requires a tolerance for losing money on some of the shares you buy. But it's not unreasonable to try to avoid truly shocking capital losses. It must have been painful to be a Hope Education Group Co., Ltd. (HKG:1765) shareholder over the last year, since the stock price plummeted 81% in that time. A loss like this is a stark reminder that portfolio diversification is important. Notably, shareholders had a tough run over the longer term, too, with a drop of 54% in the last three years. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 56% in the last three months. We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It's a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it's worth keeping in mind there's more to life than money, anyway.

If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Hope Education Group isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.

See our latest analysis for Hope Education Group

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Even though the Hope Education Group share price is down over the year, its EPS actually improved. Of course, the situation might betray previous over-optimism about growth.

The divergence between the EPS and the share price is quite notable, during the year. So it's easy to justify a look at some other metrics.

Hope Education Group's dividend seems healthy to us, so we doubt that the yield is a concern for the market. From what we can see, revenue is pretty flat, so that doesn't really explain the share price drop. Of course, it could simply be that it simply fell short of the market consensus expectations.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

SEHK:1765 Earnings and Revenue Growth April 19th 2022

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Hope Education Group will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

A Different Perspective

The last twelve months weren't great for Hope Education Group shares, which performed worse than the market, costing holders 81%, including dividends. The market shed around 20%, no doubt weighing on the stock price. Shareholders have lost 14% per year over the last three years, so the share price drop has become steeper, over the last year; a potential symptom of as yet unsolved challenges. We would be wary of buying into a company with unsolved problems, although some investors will buy into struggling stocks if they believe the price is sufficiently attractive. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should be aware of the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Hope Education Group .

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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