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Optimistic Investors Push Vico International Holdings Limited (HKG:1621) Shares Up 28% But Growth Is Lacking

Simply Wall St ·  Apr 14, 2022 19:10

Vico International Holdings Limited (HKG:1621) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 28% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Taking a wider view, although not as strong as the last month, the full year gain of 17% is also fairly reasonable.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Vico International Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 8.2x is worth a mention when the median P/E in Hong Kong is similar at about 9x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.

For example, consider that Vico International Holdings' financial performance has been poor lately as it's earnings have been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to put the disappointing earnings performance behind them over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from falling. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Vico International Holdings

SEHK:1621 Price Based on Past Earnings April 14th 2022 Although there are no analyst estimates available for Vico International Holdings, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Vico International Holdings' Growth Trending?

Vico International Holdings' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 2.1%. That put a dampener on the good run it was having over the longer-term as its three-year EPS growth is still a noteworthy 29% in total. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would be roughly satisfied with the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 18% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

In light of this, it's curious that Vico International Holdings' P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Vico International Holdings' P/E

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Vico International Holdings' P/E is also back up to the market median. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

Our examination of Vico International Holdings revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Vico International Holdings, and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

If you're unsure about the strength of Vico International Holdings' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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