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国泰君安:能源新材料板块在拥挤度缓解后配置性价比提升 重点关注锂电和风光材料

Guotai Junan: after the congestion of the new energy materials plate is alleviated, the configuration performance-to-price ratio is improved, focusing on lithium power and landscape materials.

Zhitong Finance ·  Apr 10, 2022 19:56

Zhitong Financial APP learned that Guotai Junan Securities issued a research report thatAfter the alleviation of congestion, the configuration performance-to-price ratio of the new energy materials plate is improved, and the oversold lithium materials in the early stage and the landscape materials with low attention of some institutions deserve to be paid more attention.In terms of the gold stock portfolio of new materials, Guotai Junan Securities recommends Zhenhua New material-U (688707.SH), Dazheng New material (603876.SH), Dadi Bear (688077.SH), Tin shares (000960.SZ), Tiannai Technology (688116.SH), Lianhong Xinke (003022.SZ), Jilin carbon Valley, Guangwei compound material (300699.SZ), and benefit from the target Black Cat shares (002068.SZ).

From new energy to pan-new energy, energy new materials is the key foothold, and there are opportunities for the allocation of new energy materials under the alleviation of congestion.In 2021, the new energy market shows an obvious transfer process from the industrial chain of new energy vehicle owners to pan-new energy plates such as new energy power generation, energy new materials and so on. at the same time, there is also a transfer of trading heat from lithium materials to landscape materials within the energy new materials plate. From the perspective of valuation, the trend rhythm of energy new materials is similar to that of new energy car owners' industrial chain. Under the background of 2021Q4 new energy vehicle owners' industrial chain being highly anticipated and overcrowded, some lithium new materials are oversold, scenery new materials begin to gather a new consensus, and the bargaining chips of energy materials plate are rebalanced. Guotai Junan believes that the new energy market will shift from beta to alpha in 2022, and new materials will be the biggest source of marginal change under the overall expected high level. At present, the overall congestion of the plate is alleviated, and many subdivided materials have a ratio of performance to price.

Energy new material board profit cycle upward, valuation performance-to-price ratio marginal rise.The sector business cycle has continued to rise since 2020Q3 and is still at a high level, and the overall net profit growth rate in 2022 is expected to maintain 66.4% at a high base. At the same time, sector earnings expectations have been rising since 2021Q4, and the range of 2023EPS revision is significantly greater than in 2022, highlighting the market's confidence in its long-term growth. On the other hand, from the perspective of earnings valuation matching dimension, energy new materials currently have a high performance-to-price ratio compared with other technology manufacturing sectors, and its overall profit performance-to-price ratio in 2022 is further higher than that in 2021, making its allocation value more prominent.

Configuration, profitability and valuation three-dimensional screening recommended curing agents, targets, electrolyte additives, copper foil, PVDF and other new energy materials.From the configuration point of view, we look for the varieties with uplink configuration but still low configuration, and the varieties that used to huddle together but the congestion is significantly improved. The profit dimension pays attention to the materials in which market performance expectations show an upward trend. The valuation dimension chooses low PEG and low PB-ROE materials. In summary, curing agents in wind power materials, targets in photovoltaic materials, electrolyte additives in lithium materials, copper foil, PVDF and other materials companies should pay more attention to.

The supply and demand pattern is still tight, and the domestic substitution of new energy materials is accelerated.The technological breakthrough of new energy materials is an important driver of the long-term prosperity of the new energy industry. Guotai Junan divides new energy materials into hydrogen energy, lithium electricity, photovoltaic and wind power according to the application scene. On the whole, the current tense pattern of supply and demand of new energy materials has not alleviated or even intensified, while the technological progress and breakthroughs downstream have put forward higher requirements for the variety and consumption of new energy materials, while the supply side is restricted by the time of long capacity delivery, so that it is temporarily difficult to grow during 2022, and the plate boom will continue under the tight supply and demand situation. On the other hand, although overseas enterprises still occupy a considerable market share in the high-end energy new materials sector, domestic manufacturers have gradually achieved a breakthrough in mass production of high-end materials. At the same time, the leading enterprises of the domestic new energy industry chain are also actively cooperating with the upstream to distribute production capacity to speed up the process of domestic substitution of new energy materials.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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