Oil prices are soaring amid tensions between Russia and Ukraine. JPMorgan Chase & Co pointed out that if the oil price rises to $100 a barrel, it could further weaken the growth prospects of the global economy and push up inflation, which has triggered high global concerns about future economic development.

Due to increased geopolitical tensionsCloth oil rose nearly 1% on Monday, surging to $96.16 a barrel, the highest in intraday trading since 2014, and US oil rose above 95% to $95.82 a barrel.

On Monday, during the latest energy conference in Cairo"it's terrible," energy ministers said of the possibility of a rise in oil prices to $100 and the serious consequences.

Egyptian Oil Minister Tarek El Molla pointed out:

I can foresee it (oil prices above $100) is happening, but I don't want it to happen.

Cyprus Energy Minister Natasa Pilides said:

This is already on the way, but it would be terrible if it happened.

Israeli Energy Minister Karine Elharrar said:

This is a very thorny issue, and if we do not want to reach the oil price of $100, then we must ensure that we have diversified sources of energy and we need to stick to our goals in terms of energy transformation.

The geopolitical situation contributes to the rise of oil prices.

As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalates, the United States and Europe have threatened to impose sanctions on Russia, adding to fears that Russia, one of the world's largest producers, could cause supply disruptions.

Wall Street news was also mentioned in the previous article, OPEC Secretary General Balkindo saidLow levels of investment and geopolitical risks are pushing up oil prices.

Mazroyi, the energy minister of the United Arab Emirates, said on Monday that the geopolitical situation continued to push up oil prices rather than fundamental fuel shortages. Only market fundamentals can provide a justification for the OPEC+ alliance of OPEC and its allies to accelerate production. Moreover, OPEC+ is currently increasing its output by 400000 barrels per day per month, which has had a positive impact on meeting the growth of oil demand.

The US media CNBC reported on Tuesday, citing Mazroyi's response when asked whether OPEC+ should supply more oil to the market:

The recent surge in oil prices does not look like a problem of supply and demand. The main increase is due to geopolitical tensions, which is why oil prices are at their current levels.

If we have to do more, we have to look at fundamental and technical data.

Mazroyi also pointed out that if tensions lead to disruptions in Russian supplies, no member of the OPEC+ will be able to make up for production.

Economists analyze this.Despite the gradual resumption of blocked production, OPEC+ has struggled to meet supply targets, mainly due to underinvestment.Internal unrest also occurred in Libya and other countries.

Scott Shelton, an energy expert at ICAP, believes:

Given the uncertain impact on oil prices and the incredibly low level of inventories, the market must have been worried and bought heavily.

Higher energy costs will lead to inflation

JPMorgan Chase & Co warnedFor the Fed and other central banks, higher energy costs will trigger inflation.

Economies in most parts of the world will be hit as consumers find their bills rising and spending power squeezed by rising food, transport and heating costs.

Hooper, head of global economic research at Deutsche Bank, expectsThe oil shock has exacerbated today's broader inflation problem, so there is a good chance of a significant slowdown in global growth.

JPMorgan Chase & Co global stock market research said that concerns about insufficient OPEC+ production and supply disruptions in Russia may keep the oil market tight.Oil prices are expected to hit $125 a barrel as early as the second quarter of this year.

In addition, JPMorgan Chase & Co also predicted that the recovery in global oil demand this year may exceed expectations.In the latest report, JPMorgan Chase & Co pointed out:

Supply shortages are set to widen in 2022 as OPEC+ is unlikely to deviate from its target quota for production, which will push oil prices to a higher risk premium of more than $30 a barrel.

JPMorgan Chase & Co also warned that if oil prices rose to $150 a barrel, it would almost stifle global economic growth and soar global inflation to more than 7 per cent, more than three times the target interest rates for monetary policy makers in most countries.

In addition, UBS expects crude oil prices to become more volatile in the short term, driven by news of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, as crude oil demand is expected to reach a record high later this year and the oil market will tighten. Therefore, remain optimistic about the outlook for oil prices in the next 12 months.