Wang Lingtao of 2021-12-30 Pacific Securities Co., Ltd. conducted research on Zhuhai Guanyu and released a research report "Consumer Core Industry Leader, Multi-dimensional expansion opens a New Chapter". This report gives a buy rating to Zhuhai Guanyu. It is believed that its target price is 71.20 yuan, the current stock price is 48.93 yuan, and the expected increase is 45.51%.
深耕锂电二十余年，全球消费锂电龙头。 公司成立于 2007 年，凭借其 25年的锂离子电池技术沉淀、产业经验和客户基础，已处于全球消费锂电池行业的领先地位。珠海冠宇的主营产品为消费类锂离子电池产品，其中包括电芯及 PACK，下游应用涵盖笔记本电脑、平板电脑、智能手机、智能穿戴设备、消费类无人机等。 根据 2020 年全球软包消费锂离子电池出货量排名，公司排名全球第四，是唯一挤入前五的中国厂商。从下游应用领域的出货量份额来看，公司的笔记本电脑、平板电脑锂离子电池出货量排名第二，智能手机锂离子电池出货量排名第五。 随着国产替代加速以及智能设备应用场景不断拓宽，将驱动公司消费锂离子电池板块业绩快速增长。
电芯+电池 PACK 全产业链覆盖，市场份额持续提升。 电芯作为锂离子电池最关键、价值含量最高的零部件，其制造工艺复杂，进入门槛颇高；而电池 PACK 相对来说工艺简单，附加值较低。但是珠海冠宇由电芯向下游电池 PACK 延伸，难度显然低于 PACK 厂向上游电芯延升。通过全产业链整合，公司既可以保障产品品质、提升良率、降本增效，又能为终端客户提供一体化完善的服务，增强客户粘性。未来公司将持续完善电芯+PACK 的全产业链布局， 同时加强自动化生产水平，进一步提升公司的市场份额。
巩固传统消费电子市场份额，新兴市场遍地开花。 锂离子电池市场按下游应用可划分为消费电子、动力领域和储能领域，目前消费类电池和动力电池占主要份额，分别为 31%和 48%。 即使传统消费电子产品如手机、笔电出货趋缓，但 5G 普及、智能设备的技术更新迭代，相关的应用场景逐渐打开，为消费锂电产业带来了诸多机会。据 GGII 预测，全球消费锂离子电池的出货量到 2023 年约为 95 GWh， 2018-23 年复合增速约为 7%。 珠海冠宇作为消费锂电池龙头企业，无疑是新兴终端设备厂商的供应商首选之一。公司目前已与大疆、 BOSE、 Facebook 等品牌建立了长期稳定合作关系，未来将重点布局智能穿戴、无人机等高速成长领域。
切入动力电池供应链，开启下一个增量空间。 全球低碳节能的大背景下，受新能源汽车行业高景气度的驱动，动力锂离子电池进入快速增长通道。特别是我国加大力度推进新能源汽车全产业链的发展，国产锂电品牌已在国际市场上抢占先机。 据 GGII 统计， 2020 年我国动力锂离子电池出货量约 84.5GWh，占全球动力锂离子电池出货量的 53%，同比 2019 年增长 19%，2015-2020 的年复合增速为 38%。 公司积极研发动力锂离子电池，目前产品主要应用于电动摩托车、汽车启停系统，已与豪爵、康明斯、中华汽车达成合作关系，动力类锂离子电池为公司未来发展的重要战略，预计将在五年以内迈上一个新的台阶，为公司带来业绩增量。
盈利预测与评级： 首次覆盖，予以买入评级。 珠海冠宇是我们非常看好的锂电池企业，在电芯能力上，它在国内仅次于 ATL，比起国内其他做 pack封装起家的电池厂商，其技术积淀与竞争力更有保障。在横向渠道领域，它在大尺寸的笔记本与 pad 类产品领域取得了相当不错的份额和市场认可，并且已经快速地在向手机、可穿戴、动力、储能等方向展开切入与布局，应用领域的可复制性与扩展赋于公司充足的成长空间。而在纵向领域，公司上市前后已经在 pack 封装等领域展开布局，未来既会继续维持与后端重要 pack 厂的合作，也会在部分领域实现自身 cell + pack 的一体化切入。结合当下市场对于充电性能（快速充电）、新能源所带动的动力与储能等全新需求增量，公司未来的成长是多维度、多方向、复合体量的，再叠加以电池行业本身的安规护城河，接下来几年都将是持续成长的良好年景，我们预估公司 2021-2023 年利润将有望达到 10.72、 14.92、 19.46亿元，当前市值对应估值分别为 48.35、 34.74、 26.64 倍，予以公司买入评级。
风险提示：（ 1） 全球经济下滑，进而导致下游消费电子出货量不及预期；（ 2） 新建产线投产不及预期，新产品开发不及预期；（ 3） 原材料价格剧烈波动风险。
Zhuhai Guanyu (688772)
Deep ploughing lithium electricity for more than 20 years, the global consumer lithium electricity leader. Founded in 2007, with 25 years of lithium-ion battery technology precipitation, industry experience and customer base, the company has been in a leading position in the global consumer lithium battery industry. Zhuhai Guanyu's main products are consumer lithium-ion battery products, including batteries and PACK, downstream applications include notebooks, tablets, smartphones, smart wearable devices, consumer drones and so on. According to the ranking of global soft package consumer lithium-ion battery shipments in 2020, the company ranks fourth in the world and is the only Chinese manufacturer to squeeze into the top five. In terms of the share of shipments in downstream applications, the company ranks second in laptop and tablet lithium-ion battery shipments and fifth in smartphone lithium-ion battery shipments. With the acceleration of domestic substitution and the continuous expansion of the application scene of intelligent devices, it will drive the rapid growth of the performance of the company's consumer lithium-ion battery sector.
Battery + battery PACK covers the whole industry chain, and its market share continues to increase. As the most critical and valuable component of lithium-ion battery, the manufacturing process of battery is complex and the barrier to entry is quite high, while the process of battery PACK is relatively simple and the added value is low. However, the difficulty of Zhuhai Guanyu extending from the cell to the downstream battery PACK is obviously lower than that of the PACK factory to the upstream cell. Through the integration of the whole industry chain, the company can not only ensure product quality, improve yield, reduce cost and increase efficiency, but also provide integrated and perfect service for end customers and enhance customer stickiness. In the future, the company will continue to improve the layout of the whole industry chain of Battery + PACK, at the same time strengthen the level of automatic production, and further enhance the company's market share.
Emerging markets are springing up everywhere to consolidate the market share of traditional consumer electronics. The lithium-ion battery market can be divided into consumer electronics, power and energy storage according to downstream applications. At present, consumer batteries and power batteries account for the main share, 31% and 48%, respectively. Even if the shipment of traditional consumer electronic products such as mobile phones and laptops slows down, the popularity of 5G, the iterative technology update of smart devices, and the related application scenarios are gradually opened, which brings many opportunities for the consumer lithium battery industry. According to GGII, global consumer lithium-ion battery shipments will be about 95 GWh by 2023, with a compound growth rate of about 7% in 2018-23. As a leading consumer lithium battery enterprise, Zhuhai Guanyu is undoubtedly one of the first choices for suppliers of emerging terminal equipment manufacturers. At present, the company has established a long-term and stable cooperative relationship with DJI, BOSE, Facebook Inc and other brands, and will focus on smart wear, drones and other high-speed growth areas in the future.
Cut into the power battery supply chain and open the next incremental space. Under the background of global low-carbon and energy-saving, driven by the high-profile demeanor of the new energy vehicle industry, the power lithium-ion battery has entered the rapid growth channel. In particular, China has stepped up efforts to promote the development of the whole industry chain of new energy vehicles, and domestic lithium brands have taken the lead in the international market. According to GGII statistics, China's power lithium-ion battery shipments were about 84.5GWh in 2020, accounting for 53% of global power lithium-ion battery shipments, with a compound annual growth rate of 38%, up 19% from 2019 to 2020. The company is actively engaged in the research and development of power lithium-ion batteries. At present, the products are mainly used in electric motorcycles and car start-stop systems, and have reached a cooperative relationship with Haojue, Cummins and China Motor. Power lithium-ion batteries are an important strategy for the company's future development. It is expected to step onto a new level within five years, bringing incremental performance for the company.
Profit forecast and rating: cover for the first time and give buy rating. Zhuhai Guanyu is a lithium battery company we are very optimistic about. In terms of cell capacity, it is second only to ATL in China, and its technology accumulation and competitiveness are more guaranteed than other domestic battery manufacturers that started with pack packaging. In the field of horizontal channels, it has achieved quite a good share and market recognition in the field of large-size notebooks and pad products, and has quickly launched the cut and layout in the directions of mobile phones, wearable, power, energy storage, etc., and the replicability and expansion of the application field give the company sufficient room for growth. In the vertical field, the company has carried out layout in areas such as pack packaging before and after listing. In the future, it will not only continue to maintain cooperation with important back-end pack factories, but also achieve its own cell + pack integration in some areas. Combined with the current market demand for new demand increments such as charging performance (fast charging), power and energy storage driven by new energy, the company's future growth will be multi-dimensional, multi-directional and complex, coupled with the safety moat of the battery industry itself. the next few years will be a good year of sustained growth, and we estimate that the company's profit from 2021 to 2023 is expected to reach 10.72,14.92 and 1.946 billion yuan. The current market capitalization corresponds to a valuation of 48.35,34.74 and 26.64 times, respectively, and is rated as a buy by the company.
Risk tips: (1) the global economic downturn, resulting in lower-than-expected consumer electronics shipments; (2) the new production line is not as expected, new product development is not as expected; (3) the risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices.
该股最近90天内共有3家机构给出评级，买入评级3家；过去90天内机构目标均价为50.85；证券之星估值分析工具显示，珠海冠宇（688772）好公司评级为4星，好价格评级为0.5星，估值综合评级为2.5星。(评级范围：1 ~ 5星，最高5星)
The stock has been rated by three agencies and three buy ratings in the last 90 days; the average institutional target price has been 50.85 in the past 90 days; according to the Securities Star valuation analysis tool, Zhuhai Guanyu (688772) good company has a rating of 4 stars, a good price rating of 0.5 stars and a comprehensive valuation rating of 2.5 stars. (rating range: 1-5 stars, up to 5 stars)