Wang Lingtao of 2021-12-30 Pacific Securities Co., Ltd. conducted research on Zhuhai Guanyu and released a research report "Consumer Core Industry Leader, Multi-dimensional expansion opens a New Chapter". This report gives a buy rating to Zhuhai Guanyu. It is believed that its target price is 71.20 yuan, the current stock price is 48.93 yuan, and the expected increase is 45.51%.
Zhuhai Guanyu (688772)
Deep ploughing lithium electricity for more than 20 years, the global consumer lithium electricity leader. Founded in 2007, with 25 years of lithium-ion battery technology precipitation, industry experience and customer base, the company has been in a leading position in the global consumer lithium battery industry. Zhuhai Guanyu's main products are consumer lithium-ion battery products, including batteries and PACK, downstream applications include notebooks, tablets, smartphones, smart wearable devices, consumer drones and so on. According to the ranking of global soft package consumer lithium-ion battery shipments in 2020, the company ranks fourth in the world and is the only Chinese manufacturer to squeeze into the top five. In terms of the share of shipments in downstream applications, the company ranks second in laptop and tablet lithium-ion battery shipments and fifth in smartphone lithium-ion battery shipments. With the acceleration of domestic substitution and the continuous expansion of the application scene of intelligent devices, it will drive the rapid growth of the performance of the company's consumer lithium-ion battery sector.
Battery + battery PACK covers the whole industry chain, and its market share continues to increase. As the most critical and valuable component of lithium-ion battery, the manufacturing process of battery is complex and the barrier to entry is quite high, while the process of battery PACK is relatively simple and the added value is low. However, the difficulty of Zhuhai Guanyu extending from the cell to the downstream battery PACK is obviously lower than that of the PACK factory to the upstream cell. Through the integration of the whole industry chain, the company can not only ensure product quality, improve yield, reduce cost and increase efficiency, but also provide integrated and perfect service for end customers and enhance customer stickiness. In the future, the company will continue to improve the layout of the whole industry chain of Battery + PACK, at the same time strengthen the level of automatic production, and further enhance the company's market share.
Emerging markets are springing up everywhere to consolidate the market share of traditional consumer electronics. The lithium-ion battery market can be divided into consumer electronics, power and energy storage according to downstream applications. At present, consumer batteries and power batteries account for the main share, 31% and 48%, respectively. Even if the shipment of traditional consumer electronic products such as mobile phones and laptops slows down, the popularity of 5G, the iterative technology update of smart devices, and the related application scenarios are gradually opened, which brings many opportunities for the consumer lithium battery industry. According to GGII, global consumer lithium-ion battery shipments will be about 95 GWh by 2023, with a compound growth rate of about 7% in 2018-23. As a leading consumer lithium battery enterprise, Zhuhai Guanyu is undoubtedly one of the first choices for suppliers of emerging terminal equipment manufacturers. At present, the company has established a long-term and stable cooperative relationship with DJI, BOSE, Facebook Inc and other brands, and will focus on smart wear, drones and other high-speed growth areas in the future.
Cut into the power battery supply chain and open the next incremental space. Under the background of global low-carbon and energy-saving, driven by the high-profile demeanor of the new energy vehicle industry, the power lithium-ion battery has entered the rapid growth channel. In particular, China has stepped up efforts to promote the development of the whole industry chain of new energy vehicles, and domestic lithium brands have taken the lead in the international market. According to GGII statistics, China's power lithium-ion battery shipments were about 84.5GWh in 2020, accounting for 53% of global power lithium-ion battery shipments, with a compound annual growth rate of 38%, up 19% from 2019 to 2020. The company is actively engaged in the research and development of power lithium-ion batteries. At present, the products are mainly used in electric motorcycles and car start-stop systems, and have reached a cooperative relationship with Haojue, Cummins and China Motor. Power lithium-ion batteries are an important strategy for the company's future development. It is expected to step onto a new level within five years, bringing incremental performance for the company.
Profit forecast and rating: cover for the first time and give buy rating. Zhuhai Guanyu is a lithium battery company we are very optimistic about. In terms of cell capacity, it is second only to ATL in China, and its technology accumulation and competitiveness are more guaranteed than other domestic battery manufacturers that started with pack packaging. In the field of horizontal channels, it has achieved quite a good share and market recognition in the field of large-size notebooks and pad products, and has quickly launched the cut and layout in the directions of mobile phones, wearable, power, energy storage, etc., and the replicability and expansion of the application field give the company sufficient room for growth. In the vertical field, the company has carried out layout in areas such as pack packaging before and after listing. In the future, it will not only continue to maintain cooperation with important back-end pack factories, but also achieve its own cell + pack integration in some areas. Combined with the current market demand for new demand increments such as charging performance (fast charging), power and energy storage driven by new energy, the company's future growth will be multi-dimensional, multi-directional and complex, coupled with the safety moat of the battery industry itself. the next few years will be a good year of sustained growth, and we estimate that the company's profit from 2021 to 2023 is expected to reach 10.72,14.92 and 1.946 billion yuan. The current market capitalization corresponds to a valuation of 48.35,34.74 and 26.64 times, respectively, and is rated as a buy by the company.
Risk tips: (1) the global economic downturn, resulting in lower-than-expected consumer electronics shipments; (2) the new production line is not as expected, new product development is not as expected; (3) the risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices.
The stock has been rated by three agencies and three buy ratings in the last 90 days; the average institutional target price has been 50.85 in the past 90 days; according to the Securities Star valuation analysis tool, Zhuhai Guanyu (688772) good company has a rating of 4 stars, a good price rating of 0.5 stars and a comprehensive valuation rating of 2.5 stars. (rating range: 1-5 stars, up to 5 stars)