Per the OPEC+ oil production agreement, Russia's oil quota for December stands at 10,018kb/d, up ~100kb/d from the November quota of 9,913kb/d.
However, per Reuters sources, Russian production is likely to remain flat MoM in December, suggesting the oil powerhouse is unable to increase production from existing spare capacity.
This bodes well for oil bulls (CO1:COM)(CL1:COM)(NYSEARCA:USO)(NYSEARCA:XOP), as the OPEC+ agreement calls for another 100kb/d+ of Russian supply growth in January, a mark that will be difficult to hit without spare capacity.
Tempering the bulls, increased supplies from Venezuela, as the OPEC+ member has begun sourcing diluent from Iran in 2021, has allowed the Country to reach production of 1mb/d earlier this week, compared to a ~570kb/d average in 2020.
Some Russian oil companies are dialing up investments to drive production growth, though it remains unclear whether this spend is designed to offset declines elsewhere in Russia or grow aggregate production to take market share; assuming today's data point proves accurate, oil bulls are likely to feel confident Russia will maintain supply discipline at the OPEC+ meeting next week.
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