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锂资源约束下三元正极供需紧平衡,关注高镍三元估值修复

The tight balance of supply and demand of ternary positive electrode under the constraint of lithium resources, paying attention to the repair of ternary valuation with high nickel.

智通財經 ·  Dec 22, 2021 02:36

Zhitong Financial APP learned that CSC FINANCIAL CO.,LTD released a research report on the supply and demand outlook of new energy vehicles in 2022, saying that considering the limitation of lithium resources to the production capacity of ternary positive electrodes, the ratio of supply and demand of ternary positive electrodes in 2022 is expected to be 109%, 102%, 106% and 115%, respectively. Q4 is 112%, 102%, 106% and 115%, and the supply and demand is tight throughout the year. Under the strong background of lithium iron phosphate, the valuation of ternary cathode is significantly suppressed. Under the current market value, the overall valuation of ternary cathode materials in 2022 is about 30 times, which is lower than that of 50 times of lithium iron phosphate. Under the background of this valuation suppression, it is recommended to focus on high nickel ternary investment opportunities and recommend Rong Bai Technology (688005.SH) and Huayou Cobalt Industry (603799.SH) with integrated production advantages. Recommended products are different Zhenhua new materials (688707.SH) and so on.

The main points are as follows:

Lithium resources limit the supply of ternary positive electrodes for 22 years, and the operating rate of second-line production capacity is limited due to the lack of lithium resources.It is estimated that the global time-weighted production capacity in 2022 is 1.28 million tons, a net increase of about 220000 tons over 2021, and the increment mainly comes from leading suppliers such as Rong Bai, Zhenhua, long-term and Dangsheng. The tight supply of lithium resources in 2022 will limit the production capacity of second-line cathode manufacturers. After considering the increment of lithium supply under neutral conditions, the production capacity of ternary cathode is expected to be limited to 280000 tons, corresponding toThe annual supply is 1 million tons, and the Q1-Q4 is 20, 23, 26 and 310000 tons.

The boom of new energy vehicles continues, with a demand of 920000 tons for three-way positive electrodes for the whole year.It is estimated that 9.41 million new energy vehicles will be sold worldwide in 2022, of which 5.2 million will be sold in China, and the demand will continue.It is estimated that the demand for ternary cathode in 2022 is 920000 tons, and the Q1-Q4 is 18, 23, 25 and 270000 tons.The demand is affected by the sales of new energy vehicles, which is low before and high after the quarterly distribution.

It is expected that there is a tight balance between supply and demand of cathode materials in 2022, paying attention to the repair of high nickel ternary valuation.

In the case of considering the limitation of lithium resources on the production capacity of ternary positive electrodesIt is estimated that the ratio of supply and demand of ternary positive electrode in 2022 is 109%. The ratio of supply and demand of the three positive electrodes in 2022 is 112%, 102%, 106% and 115%, respectively. The supply and demand of the whole year is in tight balance.

Under the background of the strong strength of lithium iron phosphate, the valuation of ternary positive electrode is significantly suppressed, and under the current market value,The overall valuation of ternary cathode materials in 2022 is about 30 times, which is lower than that of lithium iron phosphate 50 times. Under the background of this valuation suppression, focus on high nickel ternary investment opportunities., mainly as follows:

First, the ternary permeability of high nickel has increased rather than decreased since the beginning of this year.At present, it is close to 20%, the industry is booming, the downstream demand is strong, and the permeability is expected to continue to rise in 2022.

Second, 4680 large cylindrical batteries and composite membranes and other industrial trends are favorable for ternary cathode materials. Under the endorsement of Tesla, Inc. and the head battery factory, the promotion progress may be higher than expected.

Third, in 2022, the production capacity expansion of the three-yuan high-nickel industry is more restrained, and the production capacity is concentrated in the head enterprises, and the pattern is still relatively clear.

Fourth, a number of focus high-nickel models around the world will be launched in 2022, which may drive demand to a higher level.It is recommended that it has the advantage of integrated production.Rongbai Technology and Huayou Cobalt IndustryThe recommended products are differentZhenhua new material

Risk hint

The production and sales of new energy vehicles fell short of expectations, the global epidemic intensified, and the prices of raw materials rose sharply.

This article comes from a research report released by CSC FINANCIAL CO.,LTD 's new energy research team, written by analysts Ma Tianyi and Zhu Yue; Zhitong Financial Editor: Wen Wen.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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