Zhitong Financial APP learned that CITIC released a research report saying that after the rush to install the wind power industry, it still maintained a high demeanor in the context of the dual-carbon strategy, and the average wind power installation is expected to reach 55GW in 2021-2025, with a CAGR of 15%, maintaining rapid growth. Matrix resin system import dependence is more serious, domestic enterprises, such as Daosheng Tianhe, Shangwei new materials (688585.SH) for capacity layout; curing agent polyetheramine domestic production capacity is far lower than demand, domestic enterprises such as Chenghua shares (300610.SZ), Zhengda new materials, Akoli (603722.SH) to accelerate production expansion to achieve domestic substitution. The price of traditional light wood core is rising rapidly.The demand for replacement of new PVC and PET structural foams is prominent.. Maintenance of prosperity of glass fiber reinforced compositesPermeability of carbon fiber reinforced composites graduallyPromote. Comprehensive production and maintenance costIt is expected that the fluorocarbon coating with high weather resistance will have a better performance on the protective coating for wind power equipment.。

CITIC's main points are as follows:

The high scenery of wind power is expected to continue to be maintained, and the trend of large-scale blades promotes the accelerated change of key materials.After China's wind power industry has experienced the rush to install in 2021, the hub of installed capacity in 2021 is still expected to reach 15%. The "last bus" subsidized by offshore wind power projects will be used as a strong support. It is estimated that the average annual installed capacity of wind power will be 55GW and 15% in 2021-2025. The blade is developing in the direction of large-scale, which puts forward higher requirements for the performance of key materials. In the future, wind power materials will develop in the direction of lightweight, high strength and low cost. It is estimated that the total market space of key materials for wind power blades (epoxy resin, polyetheramine), core materials (PVC, PET structural foam), reinforcement materials (high modulus glass fiber, carbon fiber) and coating materials is about 30 billion yuan in 2025, and CAGR will be 15.74% in 2021-2025.

The import dependence of matrix resin system is serious, and the domestic substitution is accelerated.Epoxy resin is the key matrix material of wind power blade, which meets the mechanical and mechanical properties of the blade after heat curing with polyetheramine, and it is also the main material of structural adhesive. China is the largest place of production and consumption of epoxy resin in the world. The production capacity of domestic epoxy resin is saturated, but the operating rate remains low. China's epoxy resin external dependence is about 20%, and wind power epoxy resin is still dependent on imports. Domestic enterprises, such as Daosheng Tianhe, Shangwei new materials, etc., carry out capacity distribution. Curing agent polyetheramine domestic production capacity is far lower than demand, domestic enterprises such as Chenghua shares, Zhengda new materials, Accri accelerated production expansion to achieve domestic substitution.

The price of traditional light wood core material is rising rapidly, and the demand for replacement of new PVC and PET structural foam materials is prominent.The shell, shear web and other important components of the wind turbine blade generally adopt the sandwich structure, through which the shear force of the blade is transferred from the surface to the interior to improve the load capacity of the blade. The prosperity of the wind power industry increased rapidly from 2019 to 2020, and the price of Basha wood increased rapidly, which brought pressure on the production of wind power blade enterprises and forced the blade production enterprises to use new structural core materials. PVC core material is widely used, but it has the problems of high temperature curing and coke burning and difficult to recycle. PET structural foam core material has excellent high temperature resistance, which belongs to thermoplastic material and can be recycled, which is the development direction of core material in the future. It is estimated that the market demand for PVC and PET structural bubbles in 2021-2025 will be 15% and 16% respectively, maintaining a good development trend.

The prosperity of glass fiber reinforced composites is maintained, and the permeability of carbon fiber reinforced composites is gradually increased.The composite of reinforced material and matrix resin can improve the tensile performance of the blade, which can greatly improve the performance of the blade. The high-rise material of wind power scene will continue to increase the demand for high-modulus glass fiber, which is the main reinforcement material, and the demand for high-mode wind power glass fiber is expected to be 700000 tons in 2025. At the same time, large-scale wind power blades need to use lighter and higher strength materials. Carbon fiber is mainly used in the manufacture of key components of wind power blades because of its low density and high strength. According to data from the Guangzhou Olympic Games, the global demand for carbon fiber in wind power will be 30600 tons in 2020 and is expected to reach 93400 tons in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 25 per cent. The production capacity of carbon fiber production enterprises in China is increasing rapidly. Under the trend of large-scale blades, the permeability of carbon fiber composites is expected to continue to increase. It is estimated that the market demand for carbon fiber materials for wind power in China from 2021 to 2025 will be 28.73%.

The high weather resistance and long service life of the coating are the development direction of technology and application in the future.The coating material is used to protect wind power blades and towers in harsh wind farm environment from corrosion and wear, and the commonly used coatings are epoxy paint and polyurethane paint. The cost of the coating is relatively low in the wind power blades, and the protection life of the universal polyurethane topcoat is about 8 years, and it needs to be maintained many times in the design life of 20 years of wind power equipment. the use of fluorocarbon coating topcoat with a service life of 20 years will greatly reduce the follow-up maintenance cost. Considering the production and maintenance costs, it is expected that the fluorocarbon coatings with high weather resistance will have a better performance in the protective coatings for wind power equipment.

Risk factors:The prosperity of the wind power industry has not improved as expected; macroeconomic fluctuations have strained import and export trade and hindered the supply of raw materials; and the domestic substitution of key materials for wind power generation is not as expected.

Investment advice:After the rush installation and low tide, the wind power industry still maintains a high demeanor under the background of the dual-carbon strategy. It is estimated that the average installed capacity of wind power in 2021-2025 will reach 55GW and the CAGR will be 15%, maintaining rapid growth. The trend of large-scale wind turbine blades promotes changes in the supply side of core materials, and blade technology iteratively enhances the demand for material performance. The import dependence of the key materials for the manufacture of wind turbine blades is high, and some enterprises are accelerating the layout, so localization is imperative.

This article is edited from the study of CITIC, author:Wang Zhe, Li Chao, Hua Pengwei, Sun Mingxin, Yuan JiancongChen Xiaoyi, financial editor of Zhitong.