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Open source securities: give Stone Technology buy rating

證券之星 ·  {{timeTz}}


2021-12-15 Open Source Securities Co., Ltd. LV Ming conducted research on stone technology and issued a research report "Company Information Update report: November domestic sales exceeded expectations, Meiya returned to positive growth, and is optimistic about quarterly improvement in 2022." this report gives a buy rating to Stone Technology, and the current share price is 810.0 yuan.


Stone Technology (688169)
Domestic sales exceeded expectations in November, Meiya returned to positive growth, and it is optimistic that the performance will improve quarter by quarter in 2022.
2021M11 domestic sales maintain high growth, with the volume of self-cleaning products in 2022, domestic sales are expected to continue high growth; 2021M11 export is expected to stack up and expect 2022Q1 overseas new, shipping relief, export is expected to return to high growth; with revenue volume, cost-side improvement, profitability is expected to be repaired. Considering the weak growth rate of 2021Q4 overseas market, we downgrade our profit forecast. We expect the homing net profit from 2021 to 2023 to be 15.9 shock 20.8 / 2.64 billion yuan (the original value is 16.7 shock 22.5 / 2.83 billion yuan), EPS is 31.2 pound 39.6 yuan, and the current share price corresponds to 33.3 pound 25.5 pound 20.1 times. Considering the quarterly improvement expected in 2022, the "Buy" rating remains unchanged.
Domestic sales: M11, Shuang12 and Q4 exceeded expectations, BABA channel doubled growth, and the trend of new product release has been determined.
According to business staff, Stone BABA Channel floor sweeper GMV continued to exceed expectations: 2021W49+W50 (November 29-December 12) GMV+142%;2021M11 GMV+147%; as of December 12, 2021Q4 accumulated GMV+140%. According to Ovi data, the online retail market share of 2021M11 stone floor sweepers is 16.6% (+ 5.2%), with a significant increase in market share. We expect the stone brand hot-selling main stone G10 products to be strong and effective in promotion, and the demand for self-cleaning products is strong, and 2022 is expected to continue to grow high.
Export: M11 Stone Meiya channel returns to positive growth, income growth may usher in quarter-by-quarter improvement
According to JS data, even under the influence of consumption reflux line and high base, Stone Meiya GMV still improved month-on-month: 2021M11's GMV+3%, growth rate improved compared with 2021M10 (- 47%); 2021M1 market share accounted for 12.6%, year-on-year + 4.5pcts, month-on-month + 3.4pcts. Considering the low 2020M12 base, the GMV growth rate of 2021M12 is expected to increase month-on-month, 2022Q1 is expected to push new and broaden the price band, export growth may usher in quarter-by-quarter improvement.
Cost side: the rise in shipping and raw materials tends to ease, and prices have fallen from their highs.
China's export container freight index shows that the freight index of 2021W49 US-East route / China-Europe route is-7.39% and 6.82% respectively from its highest point. The ABS price / steel composite price / aluminum price / copper price index of 2021W49 plastic City is-9.12% and 16.37% respectively compared to the highest point, 5.65% 6.41%, and the cost side situation is expected to improve marginally.
Risk tips: increased competition in the industry; shortage of raw materials; increased risk of overseas outbreaks.

该股最近90天内共有24家机构给出评级,买入评级20家,增持评级4家;过去90天内机构目标均价为1256.82;证券之星估值分析工具显示,石头科技(688169)好公司评级为4.5星,好价格评级为3星,估值综合评级为4星。(评级范围:1 ~ 5星,最高5星)

A total of 24 agencies have rated the stock in the last 90 days, including 20 buy ratings and 4 overweight ratings; the average institutional target price in the past 90 days is 1256.82; according to the Securities Star valuation analysis tool, Stone Technology (688169) has a good company rating of 4.5 stars, a good price rating of 3 stars and a comprehensive valuation rating of 4 stars. (rating range: 1-5 stars, up to 5 stars)

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