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开源证券:给予石头科技买入评级
Open source securities: give Stone Technology buy rating

證券之星 ·  {{timeTz}}

2021-12-15开源证券股份有限公司吕明对石头科技进行研究并发布了研究报告《公司信息更新报告:11月内销超预期、美亚重回正增长,看好2022年业绩逐季改善》,本报告对石头科技给出买入评级,当前股价为810.0元。

2021-12-15 Open Source Securities Co., Ltd. LV Ming conducted research on stone technology and issued a research report "Company Information Update report: November domestic sales exceeded expectations, Meiya returned to positive growth, and is optimistic about quarterly improvement in 2022." this report gives a buy rating to Stone Technology, and the current share price is 810.0 yuan.


  石头科技(688169)
  11月内销超预期、美亚重回正增长,看好2022年业绩逐季改善
  2021M11内销维持高增长,伴随自清洁产品放量2022年内销将有望延续高增长;2021M11外销向好叠加预计2022Q1海外上新、海运缓解,外销有望重回高增长;伴随收入放量、成本费用端改善,盈利能力预计将得到修复。考虑2021Q4海外市场增速疲软,我们下调盈利预测,预计2021-2023年的归母净利润15.9/20.8/26.4亿元(原值为16.7/22.5/28.3亿元),EPS为23.9/31.2/39.6元,当前股价对应PE为33.3/25.5/20.1倍,考虑预计2022年业绩逐季改善,维持“买入”评级不变。
  内销:M11、双12、Q4超预期,阿里渠道实现翻倍增长,新品放量趋势已定
  根据生意参谋,石头阿里渠道扫地机GMV持续超预期:2021W49+W50(11月29日-12月12日)的GMV+142%;2021M11的GMV+147%;截至12月12日,2021Q4累计GMV+140%。根据奥维数据,2021M11石头品牌扫地机线上市场零售额份额为16.6%(+5.2%),市场份额明显提升。我们预计石头品牌热销主系石头G10产品力强、推广成效显现,自清洁产品需求旺盛,2022有望延续高增。
  外销:M11石头美亚渠道重回正增长,收入增速或迎来逐季改善
  根据JS数据,即使受消费回流线下和高基数影响,石头美亚GMV仍环比改善:2021M11的GMV+3%,增速较2021M10(-47%)环比改善;2021M1市占率占比12.6%,同比+4.5pcts,环比+3.4pcts。考虑2020M12基数较低,2021M12的GMV增速有望环比提升,预计2022Q1推新拓宽价格带,外销增速或迎来逐季改善。
  成本端:海运和原材料涨势趋于缓解,价格较高点已有回落
  中国出口集装箱运价指数显示,2021W49美东航线/中欧航线运价指数较最高点分别-7.39%/-6.82%。2021W49塑城ABS价格/钢材综合价格/铝材价格/铜材价格指数较最高点分别-9.12%/-16.37%/-5.65%/-6.41%,成本端情况有望边际改善。
  风险提示:行业竞争加剧;原材料供应短缺;海外疫情风险加剧。


Stone Technology (688169)
Domestic sales exceeded expectations in November, Meiya returned to positive growth, and it is optimistic that the performance will improve quarter by quarter in 2022.
2021M11 domestic sales maintain high growth, with the volume of self-cleaning products in 2022, domestic sales are expected to continue high growth; 2021M11 export is expected to stack up and expect 2022Q1 overseas new, shipping relief, export is expected to return to high growth; with revenue volume, cost-side improvement, profitability is expected to be repaired. Considering the weak growth rate of 2021Q4 overseas market, we downgrade our profit forecast. We expect the homing net profit from 2021 to 2023 to be 15.9 shock 20.8 / 2.64 billion yuan (the original value is 16.7 shock 22.5 / 2.83 billion yuan), EPS is 31.2 pound 39.6 yuan, and the current share price corresponds to 33.3 pound 25.5 pound 20.1 times. Considering the quarterly improvement expected in 2022, the "Buy" rating remains unchanged.
Domestic sales: M11, Shuang12 and Q4 exceeded expectations, BABA channel doubled growth, and the trend of new product release has been determined.
According to business staff, Stone BABA Channel floor sweeper GMV continued to exceed expectations: 2021W49+W50 (November 29-December 12) GMV+142%;2021M11 GMV+147%; as of December 12, 2021Q4 accumulated GMV+140%. According to Ovi data, the online retail market share of 2021M11 stone floor sweepers is 16.6% (+ 5.2%), with a significant increase in market share. We expect the stone brand hot-selling main stone G10 products to be strong and effective in promotion, and the demand for self-cleaning products is strong, and 2022 is expected to continue to grow high.
Export: M11 Stone Meiya channel returns to positive growth, income growth may usher in quarter-by-quarter improvement
According to JS data, even under the influence of consumption reflux line and high base, Stone Meiya GMV still improved month-on-month: 2021M11's GMV+3%, growth rate improved compared with 2021M10 (- 47%); 2021M1 market share accounted for 12.6%, year-on-year + 4.5pcts, month-on-month + 3.4pcts. Considering the low 2020M12 base, the GMV growth rate of 2021M12 is expected to increase month-on-month, 2022Q1 is expected to push new and broaden the price band, export growth may usher in quarter-by-quarter improvement.
Cost side: the rise in shipping and raw materials tends to ease, and prices have fallen from their highs.
China's export container freight index shows that the freight index of 2021W49 US-East route / China-Europe route is-7.39% and 6.82% respectively from its highest point. The ABS price / steel composite price / aluminum price / copper price index of 2021W49 plastic City is-9.12% and 16.37% respectively compared to the highest point, 5.65% 6.41%, and the cost side situation is expected to improve marginally.
Risk tips: increased competition in the industry; shortage of raw materials; increased risk of overseas outbreaks.

该股最近90天内共有24家机构给出评级,买入评级20家,增持评级4家;过去90天内机构目标均价为1256.82;证券之星估值分析工具显示,石头科技(688169)好公司评级为4.5星,好价格评级为3星,估值综合评级为4星。(评级范围:1 ~ 5星,最高5星)

A total of 24 agencies have rated the stock in the last 90 days, including 20 buy ratings and 4 overweight ratings; the average institutional target price in the past 90 days is 1256.82; according to the Securities Star valuation analysis tool, Stone Technology (688169) has a good company rating of 4.5 stars, a good price rating of 3 stars and a comprehensive valuation rating of 4 stars. (rating range: 1-5 stars, up to 5 stars)

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