Can you imagine that a stock can rise from 1.25 yuan to 32 yuan in just over a year?

Jiangte Motor did it, this year staged this year 25 times the myth!

What underpins this myth is the halo of new energy behind it. Because there is a lithium mine at home, which has been frantically hyped by funds, the share price of Jiangte Motor has been rising all the way this year, pushing up layer by layer in the wave of new energy and standing out from the crowd. The highest price between December 4 last year and September 17 this year has risen more than tenfold.

Of course, as a demonic stock, there is often a difference between the limit and the limit. After a continuous rebound this week, today's opening directly pressed the falling limit at 21.55 yuan, with the latest market capitalization of 36.8 billion yuan. More than 1.8 million orders were closed by the end of the day, which means that more than 3.8 billion funds are waiting in line to escape, which is a total market capitalization of more than 1/10! On such a large scale, according to past practice, there is a high probability that the market will continue to "lie on the floor" when it opens tomorrow.

Jiangte motorThe reason why it fell to the limit today isBecause yesterday晚Sudden bad luck, illegal information disclosure, beingSecurities Regulatory CommissionPut a case on file for investigation.。呆The investors inside really want to cry without tears this time.

that从One degree last year"wearing a hat under the stars"To this year's shinyDaniel stockJiangte motorWhat have you been through?

It started from the motor and flourished in the lithium industry.

Jiangte Motor started fromResearch, manufacture and sales of special motors，However, the violent rebound in stock prices in recent years is mainly due to the development of the lithium industry.

The company is located in Yichun, Jiangxi Province, the "Lithium Capital of Asia", where it has 2 mining rights and 5 exploration rights. The total lithium ore resources held or controlled are more than 100 million tons, and the reserves are relatively large. The annual output of lithium carbonate in each production line is about 35000 tons. Is currently the largest domestic lithium ore reserves and lithium mica lithium extraction capacity of the largest enterprises.

Jiangte Motor is located in the upstream material end of lithium battery and has a rich accumulation of upstream resources, so it is able to make a comeback of salted fish through the rise of lithium carbonate.

From the semi-annual report of Jant Motor, we can see that lithium carbonate accounts for 60% of the business contribution, while the motor accounts for only 40%. Moreover, the proportion of lithium carbonate business is still increasing. It is estimated that by the end of 2021, the sales of lithium carbonate products will reach 27200 tons, the estimated revenue of lithium carbonate is about 2.01 billion yuan, the overall net profit of the main business is 410 million yuan, lithium carbonate contributes 70% of the annual profit, and the motor business contributes 30%.

Starting from the second half of 2020, as the consumption of new energy vehicles downstream of lithium mines first recovers, which is the biggest demand logic driver, and the expansion intention of global lithium mining is not strong in the process of falling lithium prices. Under the influence of the superimposed COVID-19 epidemic, lithium manufacturers have deviated in their predictions for the prospects of new energy vehicles, resulting in a shortage of lithium supply, and lithium prices gradually ushered in a cyclical upward inflection point, which constitutes the main support for Jiangte Motor's performance.

Choice)

Coincidentally, since November last year, Jant Motor, whose share price has been falling all the time, began to take off as the lithium battery sector stepped out of a fierce offensive.

Of course, with the soaring share price of Jiangte Motor, it is inseparable from the prosperity of the industry. With the continuous improvement of the prosperity of the new energy industry and the strong demand downstream, the global lithium resources continue to be tight.

Nowadays, under the background of global "lack of lithium", mine-end development itself has the characteristics of large investment and long development cycle, so the high growth of electric vehicle demand for lithium is difficult to make up for in a short period of time, and Jiangte Motor is also actively expanding production. In 2021, the company will expand and transform the lithium production line of 15000 tons of spodumene, which is expected to increase the annual production capacity of 10, 000 tons of lithium carbonate by using spodumene. According to the plan, Jiangte Motor plans to produce and sell 27200 tons of lithium carbonate products in 2021.

Therefore, with the industry ushering in a periodic upward inflection point, Jiangte Motor has also reversed out of its predicament and verified its performance at the same time.Operating income reached 2.03 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2021, an increase of 44.66% over the same period last year.The net profit was 249 million yuan, an increase of 1066.33% over the same period last year.

From an industry point of view, on the one hand, limited by resource reserves, grade and environmental protection and other factors, lithium may continue to be in a state of supply shortage, lithium price center is expected to continue to move up.On the other hand, with the promotion of carbon neutralization and carbon peak, the permeability of new energy vehicles will gradually increase in the future. it is obvious that upstream lithium mines will become the key to the rapid development of electric vehicles in China, so for Jiangte Motor, which has large reserves and high grade lithium resources, it shows a great advantage.

Therefore, this is also the logic of why Jiangte Motor has been frantically speculated by funds in the past year. At the very least, this track card brings it a lot of stories to tell.

What do you think next?

China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) decided to file a case against Jiangte Motor on suspicion of illegal information disclosure. Then what is illegal disclosure of information? That is, some information listed companies must announce, and timely announcement, if you do not announce, or postpone the announcement, then this will be illegal.

In fact, before this case was put on file, Jiangte Motor already had a criminal record, saying that there had been incidents of financial fraud and ST in 2018. It is said that on September 15, Jiangte Motor received an inquiry letter from the semi-annual report of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

The inquiry letter pointed out that by mining its own lithium porcelain stone, the company extracted the main product lithium mica from lithium porcelain stone and extracted feldspar powder, tantalum and niobium and other by-products; the company is required to explain the proportion of lithium ore extraction products in the corresponding business revenue, downstream customer distribution, contribution to the company's profits, and so on. At the same time, the inquiry letter also asks the company to explain the product wool of lithium carbonate.interest rateIt was 27.67%, the reason and rationality for a sharp increase of 82.65 percentage points over the same period last year.

On September 16, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued an inquiry letter to the company, asking Jiangte Motor to explain its specific planning, preparation process, and specific project cooperation plan for its cooperation with Guoxuan Hi-Tech, as well as the company's risk assessment in the aspects of technology, market, region, policy, etc., and explain whether this investment cooperation has been carefully and scientifically demonstrated and whether it is feasible, and whether it actively caters to the hot spots in the market and speculates the stock price.

Looking back at the warning questions from the exchange, it is very likely that signs of irregularities have been found. From the performance of the stock price, we can see very clearly that before the inquiry letter, Dong Jiangao reduced his holdings at the highest level. It is still hard to believe that the major shareholders have no number in mind.

Secondly, after the inquiry letter came down, the stock price began a wave of adjustment. If everything is all right and what are the funds worried about, why are they selling one after another?

And now, Jiangte Motor has been put on file for investigation by the Securities Regulatory Commission, which shows that the behind-the-scenes capital feast is not simple.

In recent years, we have seen that, in fact, with regard to the crackdown on insider trading in securities, regulatory law enforcement continues to strike hard, and the capital market has "zero tolerance". On December 8, Tanaka Seiki announced that Rose Capital Co., Ltd., a shareholder with more than 5% of the company's shares, was filed by the CSRC on suspicion of insider trading. Shenzhen Zhuoyi Technology Co., Ltd. announced on December 3 that the shares of Xia Chuanwu Insider Trading Company, the former controlling shareholder and actual controller, were fined 21.3084 million yuan.

But then again, although the case is put on file for investigation, we have to look at the substance in the end. As long as it is not financial fraud, it is not a fatal blow to listed companies.

Recently, the lithium electricity plate also has a heyday new material is also investigated for the same reason, after the announcement ate 2 falling limit board, and then there was a small rebound.

If it is not true financial fraud, not suspected of breaking the law, then this bad is short-term, more affected the shareholders' confidence, increased the volatility of the market game. There is also the need to pay attention to the company's future performance, if the company's profits are affected, then this is a long-term negative for the stock price, the stock price will fall a lot.

The end

From the company's point of view, Jiangte Motor does have stable and high-quality upstream resources, and its performance is likely to continue to rise as lithium salt continues to be released in the future. But the market has always expected before, Jiangte Motor's performance in the next few years is also fully hyped by the current market, expectations have been digested a large part.

In the short term, due to the early lithium battery rose too fast and too fierce, there has been a certain hype bubble, accumulated the risk of callback. It should be noted that once you enter the adjustment, for Jiangte Motor, which has not been fully adjusted to digest the profit disk, it is obvious that it is not cost-effective to forcibly catch up with the profit-loss ratio.

From the lithium battery plate PE, the current industry rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 81.58 times, Jant Motor is now 151.71 times, even higher than the lithium battery leader Ningde era of 148times, now belongs to the relatively high level.

Jiangte Motor's third-quarter mother net profit was 249 million yuan, an increase of 1066.33% over the same period last year, so that it has such a high valuation, but whether the next growth rate can be maintained.71The price-to-earnings ratio is uncertain.

Judging from the number of shareholders announced by listed companies, the number of shareholders reached 210000 on September 30 this year, while the China Central report showed that there were only a little more than 100000 at 2021.6.30. It can be seen that most of the investors took the offer at a high level, and now the listed companies are placed on file for investigation, indicating that these investors may suffer losses.At the same time, for companies with a lot of increase in the number of shareholders in the short term, it is also difficult for share prices to rise.

Although the high certainty and long-term growth of the lithium plate is expected to attract sustained inflows of funds, the driving phaseThe stock prices of listed companies continue to rise, but the performance and share prices of cyclical stocks that "depend on heaven for a living" will also follow the market price.The situation shows large fluctuations and weak stability.At a time when the industry is in short supply, all companies are making money, and it is just a question of whether they earn more or less.Once supply exceeds demand and overcapacity, lithium prices fall waiting for each company will be the risk of performance pressure, even upstream lithium mining companies.

Finally, the case of Jant Motor taught us another lesson. For those stocks with obvious criminal record, no matter how sexy the theme track is, we can't ignore the fundamental research, especially when it rebounds to a high level, otherwise it's okay to have an accident. If something happens, you may not even have a chance to cut the meat.