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东方财富:维持珠海冠宇(688772.SH)“买入”评级 扩大10GWh动力产能打开成长空间

Oriental Wealth: maintain Zhuhai Guanyu (688772.SH) "buy" rating, expand 10GWh power capacity and open up room for growth

智通財經 ·  11/22/2021 11:00

智通财经APP获悉,东方财富发布研究报告,维持珠海冠宇(688772.SH)“买入”评级,作为消费锂电龙头,动力领域拓展顺利,预计2021-23年实现营收106/125/142亿元,对应归母净利11.6/16/20亿元,EPS为1.04/1.42/1.79元,对应PE为60/44/35倍。

事件:2021年11月18日公司发布公告,公司全资子公司浙江冠宇电池有限公司拟投资40亿元在浙江嘉兴海盐县新建锂离子动力电池项目,预计项目建设周期为36个月。浙江冠宇已于2021年11月18日与海盐县人民政府、浙江百步经济开发区管理委员会签署《项目投资协议书》。

东方财富主要观点如下:

消费电池深耕多年,技术底蕴深厚。

公司前身为珠海光宇,自1998年起就开始锂电池研发,目前已经成长为全球消费锂电龙头企业,2020年在笔电电池市占率达到24%,仅次于ATL。公司深耕消费电芯,对于电池材料微观形貌及底层原理具有深厚积累。消费电池底层原理及供应链与动力电池有共通之处,动力领域龙头如CATL、LG化学等均为消费电池龙头升级而来。公司在消费领域技术、工艺积累以及供应链关系可复用在动力领域,动力业务有望快速取得突破。

大手笔投资扩产,打开业绩增长空间。

公司目前动力产能规模约为2.5GWh,其中本部0.5GWh试验线,嘉兴2GWh生产线,生产12V、48V的HEV电池及储能电池,主要配套客户为豪爵、康明斯、中华汽车等,上半年形成收入0.7亿元左右。公司本次10GWh产能建设期为36个月,在2023-2025年将逐步达产,除现有HEV和储能电池之外,有望进一步向BEV电池进军。

公司此前发布公告,作为上汽集团定点供应商,为其开发和供应智己LS7车型的12V锂电池。公司凭借优秀的产品性能有望在动力及储能领域取得快速突破,而本次产能扩张也为后续持续客户拓展奠定深厚基础。消费电池是一个稳定增长的市场,混动电池领域锂电池替代铅酸趋势明确,在碳中和的背景下,动力及储能电池远期市场空间近万亿。公司横向拓展进入动力领域有望打开业绩增长空间。

消费业务持续向好,盈利迎来修复。

消费电池领域,伴随日韩企业逐步退出,公司迎来结构性机会。公司凭借产品性能、研发实力、响应速度等多方面的优势,客户拓展顺利,笔电客户供应链渗透率持续提高、手机领域不断开拓新客户,整体保持满产满销的状态。另外,为满足持续增长的客户需求,公司加速产能布局,预计2021、2022年底产能可达到5000、6000万只。另外,公司三季度由于限电及原材料涨价,盈利端承压。进入四季度,限电影响逐步消退,原材料成本有望向下游传导,公司将迎来盈利修复。

风险提示:公司产能扩产不及预期;公司后续产品质量测试不及客户预期。

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