November 19-the two cities rose in the afternoon, with all three major indices rising more than 1%. The large financial plate led by securities firms changed collectively, Xiangcai shares were sealed in a straight line, the real estate plate was pulled up, and Sunshine City and China Merchants Shekou rose by the daily limit. Photovoltaic plate rose sharply, Oriental Risheng 20CM limit, Zhongli Group 7 days 5 boards; auto parts concept continues to be active, gem Zhongjie Seiko promoted to 3 even boards. On the whole, stocks rose, with more than 3200 shares floating red, and the turnover on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded trillion yuan for the 21st trading day in a row.
By the close, the Prev index was up 1.13%, the Shenzhen Composite Index was up 1.19%, and the gem index was up 1.04%. Northbound funds bought more than 8 billion yuan net throughout the day.
As far as the future is concerned, China Merchants pointed out that the market style has changed significantly since September, and the core lies in the change of the economic environment. Since September, with the release of economic data in August, the economic confirmation has entered a downward period. Superimposed power and production restrictions and other events occur frequently, and raw material prices continue to rise, resulting in a more pessimistic market for the economy in the second half of the year. As a result, the market doubts about the sustainability of the small market style, the small market style began to loose, the market style is dominant in stages.
At the same time, liquidity remains neutral, interest rates fluctuate sideways, the trend of the new energy industry is in the ascendant, and the growth style continues.
Style switching, market style dominant, growth and value rotation, the value is expected to appear repair market. Compared with the macro environment from February to September in 2021 and next year, the two are very different, with the economy shifting from recovery to recession, which inevitably leads to a change in market style:
In terms of large and small market style, although there are still many investment opportunities in emerging industries, small and medium-sized companies still have the opportunity to obtain higher returns in emerging industries that specialize in new and upward trends. However, on the whole, due to the downward economic growth rate, corporate profit growth is in a downward trend, and the overall environment is more favorable for large-cap stocks with relatively stable performance.
In terms of growth and value style, there will be a downward trend in earnings growth and continuous improvement in liquidity next year, and it is difficult for risk appetite to rise significantly, but not because liquidity kills valuations, and investors have no obvious preference in terms of valuation methods. next year's style may be more balanced, showing the characteristics of value and growth rotation. However, the current differentiation between growth and value index has been relatively extreme. At present, the valuation of the national card growth index is in the historical quartile of 86.7%, while the valuation of the national card value index is only in the historical quartile. According to the historical law, there is a high probability that there will be a certain degree of repair.