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收评:三大指数涨超1% 券商、地产午后集体拉升
Comments: the three major indexes rose by more than 1%, and the real estate collectively pulled up in the afternoon.

證券之星 ·  {{timeTz}}

  11月19日电,两市午后走高,三大指数涨幅均超1%。以券商为首的大金融板块集体异动,湘财股份直线封板,房地产板块联动拉升,阳光城、招商蛇口一度涨停。光伏板块大幅走高,东方日升20CM涨停,中利集团7天5板;汽车零部件概念持续活跃,创业板的中捷精工晋级3连板。总体上个股普涨,超3200股飘红,沪深两市成交额连续第21个交易日突破万亿。

November 19-the two cities rose in the afternoon, with all three major indices rising more than 1%. The large financial plate led by securities firms changed collectively, Xiangcai shares were sealed in a straight line, the real estate plate was pulled up, and Sunshine City and China Merchants Shekou rose by the daily limit. Photovoltaic plate rose sharply, Oriental Risheng 20CM limit, Zhongli Group 7 days 5 boards; auto parts concept continues to be active, gem Zhongjie Seiko promoted to 3 even boards. On the whole, stocks rose, with more than 3200 shares floating red, and the turnover on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded trillion yuan for the 21st trading day in a row.

  截止收盘,沪指涨1.13%,深成指涨1.19%,创业板指涨1.04%。北向资金全天净买入超80亿元。

By the close, the Prev index was up 1.13%, the Shenzhen Composite Index was up 1.19%, and the gem index was up 1.04%. Northbound funds bought more than 8 billion yuan net throughout the day.

  就后市而言,招商证券指出,9月以来市场风格出现明显变化,核心在于经济环境的改变。9月以来,随着8月经济数据的发布,经济确认进入下行期。叠加限电限产等事件频繁发生、原材料价格不断上涨,导致市场对于下半年经济更加不乐观。由此,市场对小盘风格的持续性产生怀疑,小盘风格开始出现松动,大盘风格阶段性占优。

As far as the future is concerned, China Merchants pointed out that the market style has changed significantly since September, and the core lies in the change of the economic environment. Since September, with the release of economic data in August, the economic confirmation has entered a downward period. Superimposed power and production restrictions and other events occur frequently, and raw material prices continue to rise, resulting in a more pessimistic market for the economy in the second half of the year. As a result, the market doubts about the sustainability of the small market style, the small market style began to loose, the market style is dominant in stages.

  同时,流动性保持中性,利率横盘震荡,新能源产业趋势方兴未艾,成长风格仍得以延续。

At the same time, liquidity remains neutral, interest rates fluctuate sideways, the trend of the new energy industry is in the ascendant, and the growth style continues.

  风格再切换,大盘风格占优,成长与价值轮动,价值有望出现修复行情。对比2021年2-9月以及明年的宏观环境,两者是截然不同的,经济从复苏期转向衰退期,这必然导致市场风格的变化:

Style switching, market style dominant, growth and value rotation, the value is expected to appear repair market. Compared with the macro environment from February to September in 2021 and next year, the two are very different, with the economy shifting from recovery to recession, which inevitably leads to a change in market style:

  大小盘风格方面,虽然在新兴产业仍有很多投资机会,在专精特新、趋势向上的新兴行业中小公司仍有获得较高收益率的机会。但整体来看由于经济增速下行,企业盈利增速处在下行的趋势,整体环境对于业绩相对稳定的大盘股更有利一些。

In terms of large and small market style, although there are still many investment opportunities in emerging industries, small and medium-sized companies still have the opportunity to obtain higher returns in emerging industries that specialize in new and upward trends. However, on the whole, due to the downward economic growth rate, corporate profit growth is in a downward trend, and the overall environment is more favorable for large-cap stocks with relatively stable performance.

  成长与价值风格方面,明年呈现盈利增速下行和流动性持续改善的态势,风险偏好难以明显抬升,但也不至于由于流动性杀估值,估值方法角度而言投资者并无明显偏好,明年的风格可能会更加均衡,呈现价值和成长轮动的特征。但是,当前成长与价值指数分化已经较为极致,当前国证成长指数的估值处于历史86.7%分位,而国证价值指数的估值仅处于历史8.5%分位,按照历史规律,有较大概率出现一定的修复。

In terms of growth and value style, there will be a downward trend in earnings growth and continuous improvement in liquidity next year, and it is difficult for risk appetite to rise significantly, but not because liquidity kills valuations, and investors have no obvious preference in terms of valuation methods. next year's style may be more balanced, showing the characteristics of value and growth rotation. However, the current differentiation between growth and value index has been relatively extreme. At present, the valuation of the national card growth index is in the historical quartile of 86.7%, while the valuation of the national card value index is only in the historical quartile. According to the historical law, there is a high probability that there will be a certain degree of repair.

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