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收评:三大指数涨超1% 券商、地产午后集体拉升

Comments: the three major indexes rose by more than 1%, and the real estate collectively pulled up in the afternoon.

證券之星 ·  11/19/2021 15:10

  11月19日电,两市午后走高,三大指数涨幅均超1%。以券商为首的大金融板块集体异动,湘财股份直线封板,房地产板块联动拉升,阳光城、招商蛇口一度涨停。光伏板块大幅走高,东方日升20CM涨停,中利集团7天5板;汽车零部件概念持续活跃,创业板的中捷精工晋级3连板。总体上个股普涨,超3200股飘红,沪深两市成交额连续第21个交易日突破万亿。

  截止收盘,沪指涨1.13%,深成指涨1.19%,创业板指涨1.04%。北向资金全天净买入超80亿元。

  就后市而言,招商证券指出,9月以来市场风格出现明显变化,核心在于经济环境的改变。9月以来,随着8月经济数据的发布,经济确认进入下行期。叠加限电限产等事件频繁发生、原材料价格不断上涨,导致市场对于下半年经济更加不乐观。由此,市场对小盘风格的持续性产生怀疑,小盘风格开始出现松动,大盘风格阶段性占优。

  同时,流动性保持中性,利率横盘震荡,新能源产业趋势方兴未艾,成长风格仍得以延续。

  风格再切换,大盘风格占优,成长与价值轮动,价值有望出现修复行情。对比2021年2-9月以及明年的宏观环境,两者是截然不同的,经济从复苏期转向衰退期,这必然导致市场风格的变化:

  大小盘风格方面,虽然在新兴产业仍有很多投资机会,在专精特新、趋势向上的新兴行业中小公司仍有获得较高收益率的机会。但整体来看由于经济增速下行,企业盈利增速处在下行的趋势,整体环境对于业绩相对稳定的大盘股更有利一些。

  成长与价值风格方面,明年呈现盈利增速下行和流动性持续改善的态势,风险偏好难以明显抬升,但也不至于由于流动性杀估值,估值方法角度而言投资者并无明显偏好,明年的风格可能会更加均衡,呈现价值和成长轮动的特征。但是,当前成长与价值指数分化已经较为极致,当前国证成长指数的估值处于历史86.7%分位,而国证价值指数的估值仅处于历史8.5%分位,按照历史规律,有较大概率出现一定的修复。

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