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LIVE MARKETS-Late on your BoE homework? Here's a cheat sheet

reuters ·  Nov 4, 2021 05:44

* STOXX, DAX hit all-time highs

* Fed tapers without tantrums

* Eyes on BoE policy decision

* U.S. stock futures up after record close

Nov 4 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com

LATE ON YOUR BOE HOMEWORK? HERE'S A CHEAT SHEET (0934 GMT)

If you haven't managed yet to prepare for possible market reactions to the crucial Bank of England policy announcement at 1200 GMT today, this cheat sheet from Vanda Research macro strategist Viraj Patel may turn out useful.

Patel says on Twitter: "Positioning for hawkish BoE trades is crowded now especially front-end & $GBP. No BoE hike or dovish hike will see big squeeze in short duration trades".

Beyond the "hike or no hike" issue, Patel says there are many moving parts and that trading will be volatile. In detail, he says investors should watch out for:

1. MPC dissenters (2/3 expected if BoE hikes)?

2. Early end to QE? (ends in Dec)

3. Pace of hikes "gradual & limited"

4. GDP growth downgrades?

5. Inflation persistence beyond 1H22?

More reading here:

BoE faces decision day, caught between inflation and slowdown risks

(Danilo Masoni)

*****

DAX RE-JOINS THE RECORD HIGH CLUB, VOL DROPS (0842 GMT)

European shares are off to a positive start and among the highlights are the DAX .GDAXI re-joining the club of indices at record highs and the euro zone's volatility gauge .V2TX falling further to its lowest since mid-June.

The message from the Federal Reserve was taken on the dovish side and now investors can focus on riding corporate earnings strength without worrying too much about the next move at the world's most powerful central bank.

In the UK, the FTSE 100 .FTSE edged up 0.3% ahead of a truly crucial policy decision at the Bank of England.

Here's your opening snapshot:

(Danilo Masoni)

*****

DOVISH FED TAPER, NOW HAWKISH BOE? (0746 GMT)

Well done Mr. Powell! The Federal Reserve Chair looks to have managed to sell the dialling back of the bank's massive stimulus programme as a dovish taper and investors can now return to the joys of stock markets at record highs.

The U.S. policy package contained no nasty surprises — the $15 billion reduction in monthly purchases was consensual and the inflation is "transitory" message was reiterated.

As a result, European stock futures point to new all-time peaks after Wall Street notched another record close. And with earnings still squeezing out positive surprises and real yields deeply sub-zero, many see no choice but to keep investing in equities.

With the Fed out of the way, it's D-day for the Bank of England

which could become the first of the world's big central banks to raise rates since the coronavirus pandemic hit.

Poland surprised on Wednesday, with its biggest rate hike since 2000

jolting its banking stocks to all-time peaks.

Speaking of banks, Societe Generale saw better-than-expected Q3 profit growth, driven by strong corporate and investment banking revenues and lower bad loans.

Credit Suisse

on the other hand, posted a 21% fall in Q3 net profit hit by higher taxes and charges to settle allegations of corruption surrounding loans to Mozambique.

Finally, Ether ETH=BTSP , the world's No. 2 cryptocurrency, scaled another all-time high, rising as high as $4,670.81.

Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Thursday:

* Swiss drugmaker Roche agreed to buy a nearly one-third voting stake held by cross-town rival Novartis in itself for $20.7 billion

* Norway Central Bank meeting

* Bank of England announces rate decision

* ECB President Christine Lagarde and board member Isabel Schnable speak – 1245 GMT

* German industrial output/manufacturing

* Final services PMI everywhere

* Euro zone PPI

* OPEC-plus meeting

* South Africa's medium term budget statement, Czech National Bank meeting

* U.S. trade balance/weekly jobless

* Europe earnings: Amundi, Banco BPM, Commerzbank, BT, Euronext, Hannover Re, ING, Societe Generale, Telefonica, WizzAir

* U.S. earnings: Uber, AirBnb

(Danilo Masoni)

*****

EUROPE: NEW RECORD PEAK IN SIGHT (0734 GMT)

European shares look set to open at fresh all-time highs this morning following another record-breaking session on Wall Street after the U.S. Federal Reserve engineered an orderly start to unwinding its massive stimulus programme.

Futures on the DAX rose to an all-time peak and were last up 0.5% and Euro STOXX 50 futures added 0.6%.

FTSE futures gained 0.4% ahead of a crucial Bank of England meeting at which it could become the first of the world's big central banks to raise rates since the coronavirus pandemic.

(Danilo Masoni)

*****

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