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东兴证券:给予科前生物买入评级
Dongxing Securities: give pre-science biological buy rating

證券之星 ·  {{timeTz}}

2021-10-29东兴证券股份有限公司程诗月,孟林对科前生物进行研究并发布了研究报告《Q3业绩不及预期,研发优势持续强化》,本报告对科前生物给出买入评级,当前股价为25.5元。

2021-10-29 Dongxing Securities Co., Ltd. Cheng Shiyue, Meng Lin conducted research on pre-science biology and issued a research report "Q3 performance is not as expected, R & D advantage continues to strengthen". This report gives a buy rating to pre-science biology, and the current stock price is 25.50 yuan.


  科前生物(688526)
  事件:公司公布2021年三季报,公司前三季度共实现营业收入7.76亿元,同比增长28.37%,实现归母净利润3.86亿元,同比增长20.69%,经营活动净现金流入4.74亿元,同比增长32.01%。
  点评:
  Q3业绩不及预期,但产品竞争力依旧凸显。受猪价快速下滑影响,下游养殖户亏损严重,市场苗需求下滑,导致公司Q3业绩不及预期。公司Q3实现营收2.31亿元,同比下降7.42%,实现归母净利润1.00亿元,同比下降27.10%。毛利率方面,公司前三季度毛利率79.15%,同比下降4.21pct,Q3毛利率73.14%,同比下降11.76pct,环比Q2下降5.70pct。费用率方面,公司前三季度销售+管理费用率20.60%,同比增长2.72pct,主要是受2020年疫情影响各项费用较低,而今年恢复正常水平所致。在下游需求不畅背景下,公司重点产品仍保持较强的竞争力,拳头产品猪伪狂疫苗Q3批签发数量同比增长11.71%。目前公司在手订单较多,合同负债达2.01亿元,较年初增长214.51%,为未来营收和业绩增长提供了可靠保障。预计公司全年营收增长30%的目标有望实现。
  研发优势持续强化,在研产品储备充足。公司持续强化自身研发优势,前三季度研发投入共计5679.78万元,yoy+39.16%,占营收比重7.32%,同比增长0.57pct。目前公司共获新兽药注册证书37项,其中Q3获得3项,分别是与华中农大合作获得2项以及与第三方合作获得1项。公司持续巩固与华中农大的合作研发关系,目前在研40余个产品中有25个为与华中农大合作研发,多个产品已处于新兽药注册审核阶段,在研产品储备充足。我们认为,公司持续加码研发,与华农的深度研发合作关系也有望长期维持,研发优势突出,带来强劲的产品竞争力。随着公司猪用非强免苗产品矩阵不断丰满,产品竞争力和组合优势有望持续强化。再叠加公司深耕市场苗多年,具备行业领先的营销优势,有望在养殖规模化和市场苗改革背景下,凭借研发+产品+营销三位一体的强大优势进一步提升公司在猪用疫苗领域的市占率,持续巩固猪用非强免苗龙头地位。同时公司积极布局禽苗、反刍苗以及宠物疫苗等领域,未来也有望成为新的增长点。
  公司盈利预测及投资评级:受下游养殖需求不佳影响,我们调整公司盈利预测。预计公司21-23年归母净利润分别为5.37、7.04和8.04亿元,EPS为1.16、1.51和1.73元,PE值为22.68、17.31和15.16倍。维持“强烈推荐”评级。
  风险提示:市场苗改革推进不及预期、公司产品研发不及预期等。

Prefamily biology (688526)Event: the company announced that in the first three quarters of 2021, the company achieved a total operating income of 776 million yuan, an increase of 28.37% over the same period last year, a net profit of 386 million yuan, an increase of 20.69% over the same period last year, and a net cash inflow of 474 million yuan from operating activities, an increase of 32.01% over the same period last year.Comments:Q3 performance is not as expected, but the product competitiveness is still prominent. Affected by the rapid decline in pig prices, downstream farmers suffered serious losses, market demand for seedlings declined, resulting in the company's Q3 performance less than expected. The company's Q3 realized revenue of 231 million yuan, down 7.42% from the same period last year, and realized a net profit of 100 million yuan, down 27.10% from the same period last year. In terms of gross profit margin, the company's gross profit margin in the first three quarters was 79.15%, down 4.21% from the same period last year, 73.14% from the same period last year, 11.76pct from the same period last year, and 5.70pct from Q2. In terms of expense rate, the company's sales + management expense rate in the first three quarters was 20.60%, an increase of 2.72pct over the same period last year, mainly due to the lower expenses affected by the epidemic in 2020 and returning to the normal level this year. In the context of poor downstream demand, the company's key products still maintain strong competitiveness, and the number of Q3 batches of blockbuster porcine pseudorabies vaccine increased by 11.71% compared with the same period last year. At present, the company has more orders on hand, and the contract debt reaches 201 million yuan, an increase of 214.51% over the beginning of the year, providing a reliable guarantee for future revenue and performance growth. The company's full-year revenue growth target of 30% is expected to be achieved.The advantage of R & D continues to strengthen, and the reserve of products under research is sufficient. The company continued to strengthen its R & D advantages, with R & D investment totaling 56.7978 million yuan in the first three quarters, with yoy+39.16%, accounting for 7.32% of revenue, an increase of 0.57pct over the same period last year. At present, the company has obtained a total of 37 new veterinary drug registration certificates, including 3 for Q3, 2 for cooperation with Huazhong Agricultural University and 1 for cooperation with third parties. The company continues to consolidate its cooperative R & D relationship with Huazhong Agricultural University. at present, 25 of the more than 40 products are being developed in cooperation with Huazhong Agricultural University. many products are in the stage of registration and examination of new veterinary drugs, and the reserves of products under research are sufficient. We believe that the company continues to increase its R & D, and the deep R & D partnership with Huanong is also expected to be maintained for a long time, with outstanding R & D advantages and strong product competitiveness. With the continuous fullness of the product matrix of the company's non-strong vaccine-free products for pigs, the product competitiveness and combination advantages are expected to continue to strengthen. The company ploughs the market vaccine for many years and has the leading marketing advantage in the industry. it is expected that under the background of large-scale breeding and market vaccine reform, relying on the strong advantage of R & D + product + marketing trinity to further enhance the company's market share in the field of pig vaccine, and continue to consolidate the leading position of non-strong vaccine-free vaccine for pigs. At the same time, the company actively distributes poultry vaccines, ruminant vaccines and pet vaccines, which is expected to become a new growth point in the future.Company profit forecast and investment rating: due to the poor demand for downstream farming, we adjust the company's profit forecast. It is estimated that the return net profit of the company in 21-23 years is 5.37,7.04 and 804 million yuan respectively, the EPS is 1.16,1.51 and 1.73 yuan, and the PE value is 22.68,17.31,15.16 times. Maintain a highly recommended rating.Risk hint: the market seedling reform is not as expected, the company's product research and development is not as expected, and so on.

该股最近90天内共有13家机构给出评级,买入评级11家,增持评级2家;过去90天内机构目标均价为43.34;证券之星估值分析工具显示,科前生物(688526)好公司评级为4星,好价格评级为2星,估值综合评级为3星。

A total of 13 agencies have rated the stock in the last 90 days, including 11 buy ratings and 2 overweight ratings; the average institutional target price in the past 90 days is 43.34; according to the Securities Star valuation analysis tool, the pre-science biological (688526) good company has a rating of 4 stars, a good price rating of 2 stars and a comprehensive valuation rating of 3 stars.

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