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西南证券:给予科前生物买入评级

證券之星 ·  {{timeTz}}

2021-10-28西南证券股份有限公司徐卿对科前生物进行研究并发布了研究报告《养殖盈利能力或迎修复,非强免龙头长期向好》,本报告对科前生物给出买入评级,当前股价为25.07元。


  科前生物(688526)
  业绩总结:公司2021年前三季度实现营业收入7.8亿元,同比增长28.4%,实现归母净利润3.9亿元,同比增长20.7%。单三季度实现营业收入2.3亿元,同比变动-7.4%,归母净利润为9976.5万元,同比变动-27.1%,综合前三季度来看整体实现平稳增长,但三季度因生猪价格处于低位,养殖企业处于亏损区间,所以单三季度公司销售收入存在小幅下滑。
  下游养殖企业盈利水平将迎来边际改善,养殖效率将成为其发展核心,对于动保产品需求将进一步提升。2021年上半年全国生猪存栏量4.4亿头,同比增长29.2%,能繁母猪存栏4564万头,同比增长25.7%,截至2021年10月中旬,生猪平均价格在12元/千克左右,养殖企业普遍亏损,且在本次周期中非洲猪瘟拉大了养殖的成本区间,不同养殖主体间的成本差距可达10元/公斤,因此我们认为此次动保行业需求的核心因素受到非洲猪瘟的一次性影响而短期转为养殖企业盈利能力的修复。养殖企业的盈利能力的影响因素主要由饲料成本、生猪价格、生猪死亡率这三个方面构成,从当前时点来看三者皆呈现明显的边际改善趋势,行业整体成本中枢下移,盈利水平提升,相应动保产品的需求亦将逐步加速回升。从长期来看养殖端将明确资金优势不再是唯一的门槛,成本的管控以及对待疫病科学的防治态度将与之共同作用,成为优秀高效养殖企业的衡量标准,动保产品再次发展额趋势中也将获得需求增量。
  兽用生物制品行业集中度有望进一步提升,公司注重研发产品推陈出新,有望进一步扩大市场份额。据国家统计局数据显示,2020年底我国共有123家兽用生物制品生产企业,大型企业24家,占比为20.2%,中型企业76家占比为63.9%。2020年生物制品企业前十2019年销售总额84.5亿元,占比达52.05%,但较发达国家仍存在提高空间。公司作为非强制免疫疫病疫苗生产的头部企业,未来有望进一步扩大市场份额,迎来营收增长;公司2019年国内非国家强制免疫兽用生物制品市场销售收入排名第二、在非国家强制免疫猪用生物制品市场销售收入排名第一,猪伪狂犬病疫苗、猪细小病毒病疫苗、猪胃肠炎、腹泻二联疫苗等多项产品市场占有率第一,且拥有国家企业技术中心、农业农村部企业重点实验室、博士后科研工作站等多项资质,建设多样研究平台,更新产品争取技术领先于行业,产品领先于需求。
  在非瘟以及禁抗的影响下,养殖背景与以往周期的不同将推动动保产品的需求公司发挥产品优势,稳固非强免苗龙头地位,业绩长期向好。非洲猪瘟得到有效控制但在针对性疫苗问世前防疫重视程度不减,且因生猪抵抗力受影响,对于并发症相关产品需求增长;“禁抗”政策使得饲料端无法使用抗生素,为保证养殖效率养殖户对于非强制免疫病预防态度积极,非国家强制免疫兽用生物制品市场增长明显快于国家强制免疫兽用生物制品。2015年后非强免品种市场占比逐步提高,由2015年40%提升至2020年63.9%。公司产品矩阵丰富,猪伪狂疫苗2019年市占率达29.2%,可同时提供猪伪狂活疫苗以及灭活苗,在毒株提取技术方面优势明显,采用我国本土分离的猪源性地方流行毒株,因而产品适应性与免疫原性更强,更适用于我国本土生猪养殖;公司坚持“直销+经销”两相结合的体系拓展服务半径,针对大、中、小型养殖场拥有不同策略,发挥产品与服务双重优势持续拓展业务。
  盈利预测与投资建议。结合前三季度公司经营情况,综合考虑当前市场需求,合理调整盈利预测,预计2021-2023年EPS分别为1.17元、1.52元、1.86元,对应动态PE分别为22/17/14倍,维持“买入”评级。
  风险提示:非洲猪瘟疫情;产品市场需求不及预期等。

该股最近90天内共有13家机构给出评级,买入评级11家,增持评级2家;过去90天内机构目标均价为43.34;证券之星估值分析工具显示,科前生物(688526)好公司评级为4星,好价格评级为2星,估值综合评级为3星。

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