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中泰证券:给予金域医学买入评级

Zhongtai Securities: give Jinyu Medical Buy rating

證券之星 ·  10/27/2021 11:40

2021-10-27中泰证券股份有限公司谢木青对金域医学进行研究并发布了研究报告《常规业务加速恢复,新冠检测持续放量》,本报告对金域医学给出买入评级,当前股价为108.61元。


  金域医学(603882)
  事件:2021年10月25日,公司发布2021年三季报,2021年前三季度公司实现营业收入86.17亿元,同比增长47.87%;归母净利润16.72亿元,同比增长58.52%;扣非归母净利润16.48亿元,同比增长61.62%。
  Q3业绩符合预期,高基数下仍然实现快速增长。2021Q3公司继续维持快速增长势头,常规业务恢复良好,区域性新冠疫情爆发继续贡献新的增量。2021Q3单季度公司实现营业收入31.62亿元,同比增长34.39%;实现归母净利润6.13亿元,同比增长22.84%,实现扣非归母净利润6.19亿元,同比增长28.36%。
  行业龙头规模效应越发显著,收入结构优化带动利润率提升。伴随着公司医学诊单服务收入规模不断提升,固定成本费用摊薄效应进一步凸显。2021Q3公司销售费用率11.43%,同比下降0.46pp,管理费用率11.20%,同比下降0.38pp,财务费用率0.09%,同比下降0.18pp。另一方面,公司坚持贯彻高质量发展策略,高端临检项目和优质客户的收入占比不断提升,项目结构、客户结构持续优化,带动整体盈利能力的改善;公司三级医院收入占比(扣除新冠)达到34.99%,同比提升4.49pp,客户单产提升43.76%,2021Q3公司毛利率达到46.63%,同比提升0.88pp,净利率20.26%,同比提升1.39pp。
  常规业务再度提速,新冠常态化防控持续带来检测需求。(1)常规检测业务方面,2021Q1-Q3,公司常规业务收入实现52.61亿元,同比增长33.34%,较2019年增长34.21%(较19年复合增速大约16%);21Q3公司常规业务收入大约19.15亿元,同比增长约14%(较19年复合增速大约18%)。从细分业务来看,公司各项检测服务均实现稳健增长,其中血液疾病系列收入同比增长31.4%,实体肿瘤系列同比增长38.5%,神经免疫及自身免疫疾病系列同比增长42.8%;疫情防控进入常态化阶段后,医院诊疗活动逐步恢复,我们预计随着医院诊疗人次持续恢复,公司常规检验业务有望持续快速增长。(2)新冠检测方面,2021Q1-Q3公司实现新冠检测收入约33.56亿元,截止2021年9月末公司累计检测量超过1.7亿人份,其中单三季度大约7100万人份。公司建立了中心实验室、“猎鹰号”气膜实验室和“猎鹰号”移动检测车“三位一体”的联合检测体系,可以满足常态化准备和应急响应检测需求,先后为南京、郑州、福建等地完成核酸检测任务。目前国内新冠疫情仍未完全好转,地方性新冠疫情时有爆发,进入秋冬季后疫情防控或将进一步加强,我们预计未来新冠检测业务有望持续为公司贡献业绩增量。
  盈利预测与投资建议:我们预计2021-2023年公司收入112.93、113.05、122.14亿元(调整前107.93、103.53、119.93亿元),同比增长36.98%、0.11%、8.05%,归属母公司净利润20.92、18.77、19.23亿元(调整前18.51、14.10、16.76亿元),同比增长38.56%、-10.26%、2.44%,对应EPS为4.55、4.09、4.19。考虑到公司作为行业龙头有望直接受益行业快速发展,新冠检测服务有望持续带来增量,实验室盈利能力持续提升,维持“买入”评级。
  风险提示事件:实验室盈利时间不达预期风险,质量控制风险,新冠持续时间不确定风险等。

该股最近90天内共有19家机构给出评级,买入评级14家,增持评级5家;过去90天内机构目标均价为174.61;证券之星估值分析工具显示,金域医学(603882)好公司评级为4.5星,好价格评级为2星,估值综合评级为3.5星。

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